高库存压制造纸估值

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market continues to have a pattern of oversupply. The supply side has stable imports, and the production of domestic broadleaf pulp has decreased to 243,000 tons due to maintenance, while chemimechanical pulp remains flat. Port inventories have reached a high of 2.408 million tons. On the demand side, downstream industries are gradually resuming work after the holiday, and the consumption of offset paper and tissue paper has increased month - on - month, but overall procurement is mainly for rigid demand, with weak restocking efforts and poor cost transmission. The supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [4]. - The supply - demand of offset paper shows a loose and weak balance. The supply side has seen a significant increase in production, and the demand side has benefited from the re - printing during the back - to - school season, with the shipment volume increasing by 20.1% month - on - month. However, terminal consumption has limited improvement, and downstream buyers mainly place orders for rigid demand without concentrated restocking. The enterprise inventory of 1.485 million tons has slightly increased month - on - month, and traders maintain a strategy of buying and selling as they go [4]. - Pulp valuation shows a differentiated and volatile trend. Broadleaf pulp is supported by a $20/ton increase in the foreign market, with relatively firm valuation; coniferous pulp is suppressed by futures funds and high inventories, with a weak downward valuation. Currently, pulp prices have reflected the foreign market cost and the expectation of loose supply, but the continuous accumulation of port inventories and the slow recovery of downstream demand have formed a suppression. The valuation has a ceiling and a floor. In the short term, the valuation fluctuates around the cost line and lacks a trending direction. It is necessary to wait for the results of the foreign market negotiations in March and the signal of downstream concentrated restocking. If the demand continues to be weaker than expected, the valuation may further decline [4]. - The valuation of offset paper is at a low level, suppressed by high supply, weak demand, and rigid costs. Paper mills are trying to hold prices, but there is a lack of demand support, and price inversions are common. In the short term, the demand during the back - to - school season cannot change the loose pattern, and the valuation will remain in a low - level fluctuation [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to mainly wait and see for SP2505, and short on rallies for OP2504. For arbitrage, it is advisable to mainly wait and see. For options, sell SP2605 - P - 5200 for SP and sell OP2604 - C - 4250 for OP [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Pulp Market: The pulp market has an oversupply situation. The supply side has stable imports, domestic broadleaf pulp production decreases due to maintenance, and port inventories are at a high level. The demand side has a slow recovery, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [4]. - Offset Paper: The supply - demand of offset paper is in a loose balance. Production has increased, and demand has a slight improvement during the back - to - school season, but terminal consumption is limited, and inventory has a slight increase [4]. - Pulp Valuation: Pulp valuation is differentiated. Broadleaf pulp is supported by foreign market price increases, while coniferous pulp is suppressed by high inventories and futures funds. The valuation is in a range - bound state in the short term [4]. - Offset Paper Valuation: The valuation of offset paper is at a low level, suppressed by multiple factors, and will remain in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [4]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Double - Offset Paper - Supply: The production of double - offset paper has increased this week. The output is 198,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons or 13.1% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 50.6%, an increase of 5.8% from the previous period. The weekly average profit is - 502.3 yuan/ton, and the gross profit margin has decreased by 0.05 percentage points [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of double - offset paper production enterprises is 1.485 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. It is expected that the production inventory will continue to increase in the next period [12]. 3.3.2 Coated Paper - Supply: The production of coated paper has increased this week. The output is 83,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons or 12.2% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate is 61.4%, an increase of 7.1% from the previous period. The weekly average profit is - 46.6 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profitability is under great pressure [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of coated paper production enterprises is 436,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. It is expected that the production inventory will increase in the next period [20]. 3.3.3 Domestic Pulp - Supply: The sample output of Chinese broadleaf pulp is 243,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last week. The sample output of chemimechanical pulp is 238,000 tons, the same as the previous period. The domestic pulp market is in a stable and wait - and - see state, and the production profit of broadleaf pulp is relatively stable [24]. 3.3.4 Wood Pulp - Supply: The average market price of domestic chemimechanical pulp is 2,575 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. As of March 5, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports is 2.408 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons or 0.3% [27]. 3.3.5 Pulp Demand - Tissue Paper: The supply of domestic tissue paper has increased. The output of sample paper enterprises is 287,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.93%. The inventory is 631,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [31]. - White Cardboard: The supply of white cardboard has remained flat this week. The output is 361,000 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.81%. The production plant inventory is 1.45 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 4.32% from the previous period. It is expected that the inventory level will remain at around 1.45 million tons in the next period [34]. 3.3.6 Paper Prices - Double - Offset Paper and Coated Paper: The average price of double - offset paper enterprises is stable, with the tax - included average price of 70g double - offset paper at 4,542.9 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. The average price of coated paper enterprises is also stable, with the tax - included average price of 157g coated paper at 4,875.0 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period [41]. - Various Pulp Types: The spot tax - included average price of coniferous pulp is 5,260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The spot tax - included average price of broadleaf pulp is 4,600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The spot tax - included average price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,800 yuan/ton, the same as the previous period. The spot tax - included average price of unbleached pulp is 4,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02% [43].