碳酸锂日报-20260312

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 dropped 5.14% to 155,040 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 155,750 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 500 yuan/ton to 152,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased 180 tons to 36,739 tons [3]. - According to CAAM data, in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 units respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of total vehicle sales [3]. - In the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 768 tons to 22,590 tons, and the domestic production in March is expected to increase 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons. In the demand side, the production of ternary materials in March is expected to increase 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons. In the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 720 tons to 99,373 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 3,736 tons to 43,757 tons, other links decreased by 3,550 tons to 38,140 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 906 tons to 17,476 tons. From the production schedule in March, the weekly de - stocking level basically met expectations, but the decrease in the absolute quantity led to the decline of social inventory turnover days to 27.9 days, which is one of the core reasons for price support. In April, the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. There is no definite positive factor yet. Although the shipments from Zimbabwe have been decreasing since February, which may affect production in mid - to - late April at the earliest, the large shipments from Chile will offset a part. On the demand side, due to data lag, the terminal market is under great pressure, which is difficult to effectively boost the upstream battery industry. Also, April is at the end of the stage of rush - exporting. Therefore, there is still support for the price below, and more definite positive factors are needed to break through the previous high. However, investors can still consider bargain - hunting, and should also pay attention to the situation in Zimbabwe [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract dropped from 163,000 yuan/ton on March 10, 2026, to 155,040 yuan/ton on March 11, 2026, a decrease of 7,960 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract dropped from 163,000 yuan/ton to 155,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) rose from 2,213 US dollars/ton to 2,215 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) dropped from 3,480 yuan/ton to 3,440 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) dropped from 5,200 yuan/ton to 5,140 yuan/ton; the prices of lithiophilite (Li2O:6% - 7%) and lithiophilite (Li2O:7% - 8%) remained unchanged at 13,175 yuan/ton and 14,350 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 159,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 500 yuan/ton to 155,750 yuan/ton; the prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased by 500 yuan/ton, to 152,000 yuan/ton, 158,500 yuan/ton, and 140,050 yuan/ton respectively; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 18.45 US dollars/kg [5]. - Other Products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate dropped from 114,000 yuan/ton to 112,500 yuan/ton. Among the precursors and cathode materials, the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased. The prices of most of the cells and batteries remained stable, with only the price of the square lithium iron phosphate battery increasing by 0.001 yuan/Wh [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: The report provides historical price trend charts of lithium spodumene concentrate, different grades of lithium mica, and lithiophilite from 2024 - 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: It includes historical price trend charts of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 - 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price Spreads: There are charts showing the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, etc. from 2024 - 2026 [18][20]. - Precursors & Cathode Materials: It presents historical price trend charts of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2026 [26][28][30]. - Lithium Battery Prices: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2026 [32][35]. - Inventory: It provides historical inventory trend charts of downstream, smelters, and other links from July 2025 - February 2026 [38][41]. - Production Costs: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 - March 2026 [42].