海外经济展望报告：美国有通胀回升的基础吗？

Economic Overview - Since the fourth quarter of last year, U.S. inflation has consistently underperformed market expectations, with CPI and core CPI remaining at low levels of 2.4% and 2.5% year-on-year as of February this year[7][10] - The core issue behind the weaker-than-expected inflation is insufficient demand support, particularly among middle and low-income groups whose financial situations have not improved significantly[10][11] Inflation Risks and Trends - The overall inflation risk in the U.S. is expected to remain controllable in 2026, with potential short-term disturbances from tariffs and geopolitical tensions, but lacking a solid foundation for sustained increases[11][30] - Inflation may see a mild rebound in the first half of the year but is expected to gradually ease in the second half, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates 1-2 times throughout the year[51][53] Tariff and Cost Impacts - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. peaked at 16% but is expected to decrease to 13.7% as the government shifts to a more complex tariff framework[31][33] - Tariffs have already transmitted 40%-76% of their cost impacts to consumer prices, with the remaining untransmitted cost space becoming limited[36] Geopolitical and Oil Price Effects - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a significant rebound in oil prices, which have risen from below $60 to over $90 per barrel, but the inflationary impact of oil prices is expected to remain manageable[38][42] - Even if oil prices average $80 per barrel this year, the impact on CPI is estimated to be only 0.3-0.4 percentage points[42] Fiscal Policy and Consumer Demand - Current fiscal policies are not expected to provide substantial support for middle and low-income groups, limiting overall demand and inflation recovery[47] - The political landscape complicates the implementation of large-scale fiscal support measures, making it difficult to improve consumer purchasing power significantly[47][49]