中东多家炼厂受袭，油品供应受到额外扰动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, pay attention to high market volatility [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, pay attention to high market volatility [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - After Trump's statement on the cease - fire, the market's expectation of the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased significantly. The market has fallen sharply from its high due to long - position profit - taking. However, the conflict between Iran and the US - Israel is still ongoing, and the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz has not significantly recovered. The passage of oil tankers remains at a low level as of March 11. Some oil tankers may turn off AIS signals, and Saudi Arabia and other countries transfer some crude oil through pipelines to Red Sea ports for export [2] - The high - sulfur fuel oil exported from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion, so the FU has a relatively prominent exposure and elasticity to geopolitical risks. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although only Kuwait is an important exporter, the significant increase in the crack spread of gasoline and diesel (especially diesel) will significantly boost the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil. Both FU and LU are highly sensitive to the development of the geopolitical situation, and both longs and shorts need to be cautious [2] - Multiple refineries in the Middle East have been attacked recently. On the 10th, the Ruwais refinery in the UAE was attacked by drones, shutting down half of its capacity (417,000 barrels per day). As of March 11, the refinery maintenance volume in the Middle East was as high as 2.67 million barrels per day. Even if the strait is reopened, the refinery damage will make it difficult for the Middle East refined oil supply to fully recover in the short term, and the crack spread may be additionally supported [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 4.87% at 4,318 yuan per ton in the day session; the main contract of the INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 1.33% at 5,050 yuan per ton [1] Group 4: Figures in the Report - Figure 1: Singapore high - sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, unit: US dollars per ton [4][5] - Figure 2: Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil spot price, unit: US dollars per ton [4][5] - Figure 3: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, unit: US dollars per ton [4][10] - Figure 4: Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil swap near - month contract, unit: US dollars per ton [4][10] - Figure 5: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, unit: US dollars per ton [4][9] - Figure 6: Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil near - month spread, unit: US dollars per ton [4][9] - Figure 7: Fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, unit: yuan per ton [4][14] - Figure 8: Fuel oil FU futures index closing price, unit: yuan per ton [4][14] - Figure 9: Fuel oil FU futures near - month contract closing price, unit: yuan per ton [4][16] - Figure 10: Fuel oil FU near - month contract spread, unit: yuan per ton [4][16] - Figure 11: Fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [4][18] - Figure 12: Fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [4][18] - Figure 13: Low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, unit: yuan per ton [4][26] - Figure 14: Low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, unit: yuan per ton [4][26] - Figure 15: Low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month contract price, unit: yuan per ton [4][28] - Figure 16: Low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures near - month spread, unit: yuan per ton [4][28] - Figure 17: Low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [4][30] - Figure 18: Low - sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [4][30]