地缘扰动持续，供应端仍有缩量预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran remains tense, with the navigation obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, leading to a risk of raw material supply interruption. Asian refineries, including those in China, have undergone varying degrees of maintenance and production cuts, resulting in a supply contraction expectation and cost - side support [2]. - The supply of raw material propane is tight, and the losses of PDH plant profits are deepening, increasing the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns. The demand side shows that downstream rigid demand is following up, and the return of some PP powder enterprises in Shandong has driven up demand. In the short - term, with the Strait of Hormuz not significantly unblocked, cost increases, and a tight supply - demand pattern, there is a risk of market fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 7,812 yuan/ton (+339), the spot price in East China is 8,700 yuan/ton (-175), and in North China is 8,325 yuan/ton (-475). The basis in East China is 888 yuan/ton (-514), and in Shandong is 513 yuan/ton (-814). The propylene operating rate is 73% (+1%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and Japanese naphtha CFR is 294 US dollars/ton (+65), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 19 US dollars/ton (-79), the import profit is -477 yuan/ton (-114), and the in - plant inventory is 44,640 tons (-330) [1]. - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 27% (+3.67%), with a production profit of -675 yuan/ton (-125); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 80% (+0%), with a production profit of -580 yuan/ton (-25); the operating rate of n - butanol is 86% (+1%), with a production profit of 1,627 yuan/ton (-105); the operating rate of octanol is 95% (-2%), with a production profit of 998 yuan/ton (+342); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 79% (-1%), with a production profit of 4,323 yuan/ton (+124); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 75% (-1%), with a production profit of 294 yuan/ton (+380); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 88% (+0%), with a production profit of 2,500 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran has not improved, and the risk of raw material supply interruption persists. Refineries in Asia, including those in China, have reduced production. Some refineries have already implemented production cuts, and more olefin enterprises may reduce production if the Middle East situation does not cool down [2]. - The supply of propane is tight, and PDH plant profits are in deeper losses, increasing the expectation of PDH plant shutdowns. The demand side shows that downstream rigid demand is following up, and the return of some PP powder enterprises in Shandong has driven up demand. In the short - term, there is a risk of market fluctuations [2]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].