下游观望情绪仍重，铅价暂难有靓丽表现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand but slow inventory reduction. The losses in recycled lead production lead to a lower - than - expected resumption of production, which supports the lead price. However, before the delivery of the SHFE lead 2603 contract next week, the inventory transfer and delivery by holders will bring pressure on the increase of visible inventory. The lead price is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend, trading in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 11, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.77/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to -40.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,475 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by -50 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to -25 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,950 yuan/ton. The price of scrap white shells changed by -50 yuan/ton to 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of scrap black shells changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,605 yuan/ton and closed at 16,680 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 40,968 lots, a change of -5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 61,083 lots, a change of 2,926 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,735 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,585 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 16,655 yuan/ton and closed at 16,655 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2]. Inventory - On March 11, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 74,000 tons, a change of 6,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 11, the LME lead inventory was 284,875 tons, with a change of 0 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Absolute price: The lead price is expected to run in the range of 16,600 - 17,150 yuan/ton. Enterprises with hedging needs can conduct corresponding buying or selling hedging operations according to this range [3]. - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]