美国2026年2月CPI数据点评：通胀整体企稳，短期存在阶段性反弹压力

Inflation Overview - February CPI in the U.S. rose by 2.4% year-on-year, matching expectations and previous values[5] - Core CPI increased by 2.5% year-on-year, the slowest growth in five years, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[5][6] Inflation Trends - Overall and core inflation trends are stabilizing, confirming a downward trajectory, with energy inflation rebounding and food inflation slightly rising[4][6] - Energy prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year in February, ending a previous negative growth trend, while food prices rose by 3.1%[7][8] Core Inflation Dynamics - Core goods inflation decreased to 1.0% year-on-year, contributing to the decline in core inflation[8] - Core services inflation remained stable at 2.93% year-on-year, with housing prices steady at 3.0%[8] Future Projections - March CPI is expected to exceed expectations due to base effects and geopolitical factors, with oil prices rising approximately 30% since late February[11][15] - Core inflation may see marginal increases, but sustained upward pressure is limited by various factors, including consumer demand disparities[12][13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts in the second half of 2026 depending on geopolitical and economic conditions[14][16] - Despite potential inflation spikes, the Fed will not adjust monetary policy aggressively due to the external nature of the inflation drivers[15]