USDA 棉花月度报告解读：棉花：全球产量上调，报告偏空-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The USDA's March report shows that global cotton production is up 247,000 tons, consumption is slightly down 30,000 tons, and the overall supply - demand report is bearish. However, due to the low price of US cotton and the recent sharp rise in energy prices, there is no pressure on the price of US cotton. The global cotton supply may still be relatively loose, but there is also strong support below. The market's focus is gradually shifting to the new season [1][2] Summary by Related Content 2025/26 Annual Supply - Demand Data Adjustment - Production: Global production is up 247,000 tons. China's production is up 109,000 tons to 7.729 million tons, and Brazil's production is up 164,000 tons to 4.246 million tons. US cotton production remains unchanged [1] - Consumption: Global consumption is down 30,000 tons month - on - month. China's consumption is up 109,000 tons to 8.6 million tons; Pakistan's consumption is down 43,000 tons, Bangladesh's is down 22,000 tons, and Vietnam's is down 22,000 tons [1] - Imports: Global imports are up 44,000 tons. Vietnam and Bangladesh's imports are down 22,000 tons each, Pakistan's is down 44,000 tons, and India's is up 174,000 tons [1] - Exports: Global exports are up 44,000 tons, with Australia's exports up 44,000 tons [1] - Ending Inventory: Global ending inventory is up 278,000 tons. China's ending inventory is flat, India's is up 174,000 tons, Brazil's is up 164,000 tons, Australia's is down 43,000 tons, and Argentina's is down 25,000 tons [2] Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Production: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 3, the total global production increased from 24.894 million tons to 26.343 million tons, with a monthly increase of 247,000 tons and an annual increase of 533,000 tons [3] - Consumption: The total global consumption decreased from 25.193 million tons in 2021/22 to 25.817 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly decrease of 30,000 tons and an annual decrease of 79,000 tons [3] - Imports: The total global imports increased from 9.344 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.56 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly increase of 44,000 tons and an annual increase of 190,000 tons [3] - Exports: The total global exports increased from 9.29 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.561 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly increase of 44,000 tons and an annual increase of 327,000 tons [3] - Ending Inventory: The total global ending inventory increased from 15.5 million tons in 2021/22 to 16.631 million tons in 2025/26 - 3, with a monthly increase of 278,000 tons and an annual increase of 573,000 tons [3]