中观景气跟踪3月第2期：科技景气中枢上移，原油有色价格分化

Group 1: Upstream Resources - The price of crude oil has surged due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil futures settling at $92.7 per barrel, reflecting a 27.9% increase [7] - The domestic chemical price index rose by 11.9%, while the crude oil transportation index (BDTI) and refined oil transportation index (BCTI) increased by 54.1% and 75.7%, respectively [7] - Gold and copper prices have declined, with COMEX gold down 1.7% and LME copper down 2.8%, while LME aluminum prices increased by 9.7% due to supply disruptions in the Middle East [11] Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The semiconductor sales in January 2026 reached $82.54 billion globally and $22.82 billion in China, with year-on-year growth rates of 46.1% and 47.0%, respectively [18] - The average prices for DRAM DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 showed mixed trends, with DDR3 increasing by 8.0% and DDR4 decreasing by 3.1% [18] - Construction demand has shown signs of marginal decline, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices reported at 3,170 and 3,270 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week change of -0.9% and +0.6% [22] Group 3: Downstream Consumption - The real estate market has seen a marginal decline in transaction volumes, with the transaction area for commodity housing in 30 major cities down 7.6% year-on-year [35] - High-end liquor prices, such as Moutai, have decreased by 4.9% for original and 3.3% for bulk, indicating a drop in demand post-holiday [39] - The service sector remains strong, with travel-related prices significantly increasing, including a 31.1% rise in airfare and a 15.8% increase in travel agency fees [45] Group 4: Logistics and Passenger Flow - Passenger transport in major cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with the Baidu migration index up 47.5% [47] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 17.5% year-on-year, while international flights have returned to 85.9% of pre-pandemic levels [49] - The SCFI index for shipping prices rose by 11.7%, indicating a strong performance in domestic port throughput, which increased by 6.5% year-on-year [51]