油价“过山车”式行情，关注中国2月金融数据

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the tail - risk of the Iran situation as it significantly impacts the energy and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices may lead to inflation and economic recession concerns [1] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index recovers after the sessions. The US economic data shows some fluctuations, and the Middle - East conflict may push up inflation [2] - In the short - term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran - US - Israel conflict has exceeded the initial expected duration, with significant impacts on energy, production, and supply chains in the Middle - East. The tail - risk has increased sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors. Rising oil prices have a driving effect on oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and may cause inflation and economic recession concerns [1] - The 2026 Government Work Report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan for the first time. An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the stock market has some pressure, and the commodity market pressure is obvious. After the sessions, the stock index strengthens, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] - The US 2025 Q4 GDP growth rate was lower than expected, and the February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased. The February CPI and core CPI were in line with expectations, but the Middle - East conflict may push up inflation in the short - term [2] - China's January social financing had a good start. The February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. The February CPI increased to 1.3%, core CPI increased by 1.8%, and PPI decline narrowed to 0.9%. The February export and import growth rates in US dollars returned to double - digits [2] Commodity Analysis - The non - ferrous metal, precious metal sectors are inversely related to oil prices. The increase in inflation leads to a decrease in interest - rate cut expectations and an increase in recession risks [3] - The IEA has approved the largest - scale emergency oil reserve release plan, and countries such as Japan and Germany will release oil reserves. The US EIA crude oil inventory increased more than expected last week [3][6] - Oil prices are driven by geopolitical factors, and there is a "sell - the - fact" risk. Rising oil prices drive oil - chemical products and have an overflow effect on oilseeds in the agricultural sector. The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - Go long on stock index, precious metals, and some chemical products in commodity and stock index futures [4] News - Iran reaffirmed its absolute jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that it can block the strait [6] - Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran and will coordinate with the US to decide when to end the military action [6] - The US February core inflation slowed down, but the Middle - East conflict may push up inflation, and the Fed may keep interest rates unchanged for a longer time [6] - The European Central Bank may raise interest rates earlier than expected due to the Iran conflict and inflation [6] - The IEA approved the release of 400 million barrels of oil, and Japan and Germany will release oil reserves [6] - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.82 million barrels last week, more than expected [6]