双焦周报2026/03/10：短暂爆发能源属性后回归本色-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1 Core View of Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be weak with fluctuations. After the decline of the futures price, the spot trading activity decreased. On the supply side, coal mines have resumed production stably, and the production has basically returned to normal. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high, and the supply remains abundant. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have completed replenishment. After the futures price rose, speculative traders entered the market, but they mainly sold off after the price decline. The sales of coal mines have weakened, and the inventory is at a low level. Downstream enterprises are not willing to replenish inventory and mainly consume the previous inventory. Coking coal was affected by the sentiment of the energy sector and rose, but it lacks fundamental support, so it quickly declined after the energy sector corrected. Currently, thermal coal has also entered the off - season, providing insufficient driving force for coking coal [3]. 2.2 Core View of Coke - The coke market is also expected to be weak with fluctuations. A round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton has been implemented. Currently, coke enterprises are still profitable. On the supply side, the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises is high, and the capacity utilization rate is 73.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%, but still at a high level. On the demand side, the average daily output of molten iron of 247 steel mills is 227.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.7 tons. In the short term, the molten iron output has dropped significantly. Steel mills currently have sufficient raw material inventory and weak replenishment enthusiasm. The supply - demand driving force of coke is weak, and the resumption of molten iron production should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot Market - After the rapid rise of the futures price, the market trading activity increased, and some coal prices stopped falling and rebounded. However, as the futures price declined, the quotes also followed suit. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi dropped to 1460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan/ton, and the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1400 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal port quotes rose briefly and then declined again, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at 1050 - 1060 yuan/ton [10][16]. 3.1.2 Spread - The current conversion of Mongolian coal quotes into warehouse receipts is about 1150 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [35]. 3.1.3 Basis and Calendar Spread - Recently, the futures price has fluctuated and declined, and the basis has strengthened [3]. 3.1.4 Supply - The capacity utilization rate of coal mines has rebounded to 85.3%, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The capacity utilization rate in Shanxi has rebounded to 90.55%, a week - on - week increase of 22.08%. Currently, coal mines are resuming production stably, but the resumption speed is slightly slower compared with the same period in the lunar calendar. The average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal last week was 1379 vehicles, and the supply pressure is still high [3]. 3.1.5 Demand - The procurement enthusiasm of downstream coke and steel enterprises is weak [3]. 3.1.6 Inventory - The inventory of upstream coal mines is low, but the sales have weakened. Downstream coke and steel enterprises mainly consume the previous inventory, and the current inventory pressure of Mongolian coal is relatively large [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot Market - Coke enterprises have implemented the first - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1480 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is about 1465 - 1480 yuan/ton. The wet - quenched warehouse receipt price of coke at the port is 1600 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse receipt price is 1670 yuan/ton [4][92]. 3.2.2 Basis and Calendar Spread - Recently, the futures price has fluctuated and declined, at a discount to the dry - quenched warehouse receipt price. The 5 - 9 calendar spread has fluctuated [98]. 3.2.3 Supply - Coke enterprises are still profitable, and their production enthusiasm is high [4]. 3.2.4 Demand - The average daily output of molten iron of 247 steel mills is 227.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.7 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 80.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. Steel mills' profitability is at a relatively low level compared with the same period, and the molten iron output has dropped significantly in the short term [4][103]. 3.2.5 Profit - After the first - round price cut, coke enterprises still have good profitability. Currently, the overall profitability of coking is estimated to be 50 - 100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2.6 Inventory - The sales of coke enterprises have weakened, and inventory has accumulated. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not strong, and inventory is sufficient [4]. 3.3 Balance Sheet 3.3.1 Coking Coal Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the production, import, export, consumption, surplus, inventory, production year - on - year change, and consumption year - on - year change of coking coal from July 2025 to July 2026 [140]. 3.3.2 Coke Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the production, import, export, consumption, surplus, inventory, production year - on - year change, and consumption year - on - year change of coke from July 2025 to July 2026 [142].