尿素周报2026/3/9：内冷外热格局深化-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall view on urea is neutral to slightly bullish. The supply side has an extremely high historical operating rate, and the geopolitical situation has significantly boosted export profits, but there are no new export quotas. After the holiday, the compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded but not exceeded expectations. Industrial demand is temporarily strong but may weaken later. Overall, domestic supply and demand are loose, but the international situation has increased potential export demand, deepening the pattern of strong domestic and international urea markets. Prices may fluctuate with the situation [3]. - Affected by the energy situation, the far - month export expectation has increased, and the monthly spread may weaken [3]. - There were no important policies introduced this week [3]. - After the holiday, the domestic supply - demand situation was relatively loose. With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the international natural gas price pushed up the international urea price, and domestic trading became more active. Even without the opening of exports, domestic urea prices turned bullish [3][8]. - Enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week, but due to sufficient pre - holiday inventory distribution and no unexpected downstream demand, it is difficult for enterprise inventories to continue to decline [3]. - Export profits have strengthened significantly, but there are currently no new export quotas [3][31]. - Domestic demand maintains the normal procurement rhythm for spring plowing, but the international situation has pushed up international urea and other fertilizer prices, indirectly affecting domestic urea supply and demand. The demand for melamine and panels has been okay recently. Overall, the high - priced international urea may gradually and indirectly boost domestic urea demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - After the holiday, the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. In the first half of last week, urea spot prices were stable to slightly weak. In the second half, with the escalation of the geopolitical situation, international natural gas prices pushed up international urea prices, and domestic trading became active. Even without export liberalization, domestic urea prices turned bullish [4][8]. - Affected by the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, inquiries for ammonium chloride increased. Soda ash enterprises had sufficient orders and no inventory pressure, and the atmosphere of reluctant to sell was strong. The ammonium sulfate market was affected by the continuous increase in international fertilizer prices due to the geopolitical situation, with high enthusiasm for auctions, and raw material factories began to hold back supplies [12]. - International urea export profits have further increased under the influence of the geopolitical situation, but there are currently no new export quotas [31]. Operating Rate - The next - period urea daily production is expected to remain above 210,000 tons. The operating rate will remain above 90%. Recently, one enterprise's device is planned to stop production, and 1 - 2 enterprises may resume production, with the operating rate remaining at an absolute high [40][44]. Inventory - Last week, urea enterprise inventories decreased by 6.62% month - on - month. After a significant increase after the holiday, inventories declined again as spring plowing started and the compound fertilizer operating rate increased. Port inventories have reached a low point. Without changes in export policies, port inventories may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [52]. Export - There are no new export quotas for urea currently [60]. Demand - Compound fertilizer enterprises' post - holiday sales are progressing normally. They had sufficient pre - holiday raw material purchases, and post - holiday demand has not increased significantly. The post - holiday compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded rapidly, but the year - on - year increase is small [78][84]. - Domestic melamine prices have recently increased, but downstream demand has not kept up. Traders still follow the "buy on rising" mentality. Some enterprises have recently resumed production, and with sufficient supply, the increase in melamine prices may be limited [94]. Cost and Related Products - Coal prices have been stable with a slight increase recently. Coal - based enterprises have good profits and may continue to maintain a high operating rate [125]. - The synthetic ammonia market is mainly in a stable adjustment state. The overall supply is abundant, and demand recovery is less than expected. Except in some areas where good demand has driven up urea prices, prices in other areas are mainly determined by downstream factors, and the market has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [135]. Futures - The futures price is oscillating upward, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak. In March, the number of registered warehouse receipts began to increase significantly, and enterprise inventories decreased slightly [143][165]. Balance Sheet - The operating rate has been high for a long time, so the production volume expectations for the next two months have been raised. The demand for urea from compound fertilizers is weak, so the demand for urea from compound fertilizers has been lowered [170]. - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, various demand components, export, surplus, year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption from May 2025 to December 2026 [168].