瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE rapeseed futures rose on March 11 due to the rebound of crude oil prices after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. It is currently the off - season for aquatic product demand, and the demand for rapeseed meal is mainly rigid. However, the adjustment of anti - discrimination measures for Canadian rapeseed meal and the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed are in line with market expectations, with limited overall impact. The rapeseed meal continued to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the rise in the international soybean market boosts rapeseed oil. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict leads to a sharp rise in international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The rise in the peripheral oil market supports the domestic market. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is settled, and the import volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase significantly, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has already anticipated this, with limited impact on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9769 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2492 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 731.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 6199 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 102 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) was 22 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil was 244,974 lots, down 8696 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal was 606,359 lots, down 45,781 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil was - 14,396 lots, down 2196 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal was - 98,903 lots, up 8939 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil was 1125 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal was 2311 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,435 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed was 5445.59 yuan/ton, up 50.16 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.92, down 0.03. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 632 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 168 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1570 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9780 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20 million tons, unchanged; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6 million tons, down 0.4 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, up 0.85 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 25.55 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 8.05 million tons, down 1.24 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0 million tons, down 0.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 28.3 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was - 0.18 million tons, down 0.18 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 0.54 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 28.27%, up 5.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 28.28%, up 5.63 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.98%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 19.9%, down 4.96 percentage points [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.78%, up 2.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 17.53%, up 1.18 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 19.21%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 20.16%, up 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 11, ICE rapeseed futures rose as crude oil prices rebounded after a sharp drop on Tuesday. The most active May rapeseed contract rose 13.20 Canadian dollars, settling at 733.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations. The soaring crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical situations will boost the demand for soybean oil through the US soybean biofuel policy. The strong soybean crushing in the US supports the rise of the US soybean market [2]. - The Canadian Bureau of Statistics survey shows that the total intended planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 will increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture said that the rapeseed production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of Energy said that the country is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel to prevent the impact of the Middle East conflict on crude oil supply [2].