白糖产业日报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar market in Guangxi had lower sales rates in February 2026 compared to the same period last year, with higher monthly sugar production and lower sales. The overall industrial inventory increased year - on - year. However, due to external factors and the current sugar price being near the cost, the medium - to - long - term price center is expected to move up [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5416 yuan/ton, and the main contract position was 413,877 hands, a decrease of 292 hands. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16,342, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 122,615 hands, a decrease of 3,586 hands. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 684, and the import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,100 yuan/ton. The import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4,019 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,195 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,090 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi Nanning was 5,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area was 1,480 thousand hectares, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The difference between the import price of Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 215 yuan/ton, an increase of 49 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - Brazil's total sugar exports in the month were 222.97 million tons. The difference between the import price of Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 1,391 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume of sugar was 320 million tons, and the cumulative import volume was 492 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 155.06 million tons, an increase of 66.58 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 53.2 million tons. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 402.9 million tons, an increase of 208.71 million tons. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan was 98.41 million tons, an increase of 59.18 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar was 228.74 million tons, and the monthly production volume of soft drinks was 1,342.1 million tons, an increase of 296.4 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 12.25%, and that of at - the - money put options was also 12.25%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.22%, a decrease of 0.75%, and the 60 - day historical volatility was 9.73%, a decrease of 0.08% [2] Industry News - The Guangdong Sugar Industry Association announced that as of the end of February 2026 in the 25/26 sugar - making period, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 4.8961 million tons (compared to 5.1435 million tons in the same period last year), the sugar production volume was 496,700 tons (compared to 529,800 tons last year), the sugar yield was 10.14% (compared to 10.30% last year), the sales volume was 291,000 tons (compared to 386,100 tons last year), the inventory was 205,700 tons (compared to 143,700 tons last year), and the sales - to - production ratio was 58.59% (compared to 72.88% last year). By the end of February, 4 sugar mills had stopped production. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.13 cents or 0.90% on Wednesday, closing at 14.25 cents per pound [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.9923 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 891,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 35.25%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.50 percentage points. In February, the single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 1.6223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 272,000 tons, and the single - month sugar sales were 441,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 60,700 tons. The industrial inventory was 3.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 375,200 tons [2] Prompt Attention - No information provided