瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of methanol has decreased significantly, leading to a de - stocking channel. The short - term arrival of foreign vessels remains at a low level. Attention should be paid to the changes in the expected export conversion and the demand of downstream coastal industries under high - price conditions. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports may continue to decline next week. The MTO industry's operating rate has decreased slightly and is expected to remain stable in the short term. The short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2726 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 68 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 156 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 23 yuan. The trading volume is 207,910 tons less [3] - The position of the main methanol contract is 570,574 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 15,634 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 40,166 lots [3] - The number of warehouse receipts is 10,333, with a week - on - week increase of 146 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2590 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70 yuan. The price in Inner Mongolia is 2085 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 505 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 225 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 68 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 39 yuan [3] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 324 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 US dollars. The CFR price in Southeast Asia is 455.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50.5 US dollars [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 368 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2 euros. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 131.5 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35.5 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.23 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 972,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 95,600 tons. The inventory at South China ports is 340,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons [3] - The import profit of methanol is - 51.31 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 39.53 yuan. The import volume in the current month is 1.734 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 316,400 tons [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 523,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29,300 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 91.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.15 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 28.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 14.02 percentage points. The operating rate of dimethyl ether is 2.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points [3] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 84.11%, remaining unchanged. The operating rate of MTBE is 67.72%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points [3] - The operating rate of olefins is 84.08%, remaining unchanged. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 675 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 98 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 71.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 percentage points. The 40 - day historical volatility is 53.14%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 56.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 56.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.29 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.30%. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.10% [3] - As of March 11, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,700 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 95,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 35,100 tons. The inventory at methanol ports decreased significantly this week, and the unloading of visible foreign vessels during the period was only 91,500 tons [3] - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased this week, and the inventory at ports also decreased significantly. The pick - up was good due to the demand along the Yangtze River, but the arrival of imported vessels was less [3] - As of March 12, the utilization rate of production capacity of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 82.50%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%. The second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei had a short - term shutdown, and the operating rate of the MTO industry decreased [3]