Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-12 09:46Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The USDA has raised the global corn inventory forecast to 2.9275 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast of 2.8898 billion tons and analysts' previous expectations of 2.8919 billion tons. The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, boosting freight rates and international corn market prices. The increase in import prices has also had a positive impact on the domestic market [3]. - In the domestic market, the temperature in the Northeast production area has risen, increasing the storage pressure of damp grain. The pace of grain sales at the grass - roots level has gradually accelerated, and more grain sources have been transferred to the trading sector. Due to the increase in oil prices driving up freight rates and high acquisition costs, it has become more difficult to transport Northeast grain outside. Deep - processing enterprises' inventories are continuously being consumed, and they are actively replenishing stocks, but the scope of price increases has narrowed [3]. - In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the quality of local corn varies significantly. As corn starch enterprises gradually resume production after the festival, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has gradually increased, increasing supply - side pressure. However, the increase in the operating rate is relatively slow, downstream demand has improved, the downstream提货 volume has increased, and industry inventory has slightly decreased. As of March 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 120.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.17%. The starch market has shown a relatively strong and volatile trend recently, supported by the strength of corn [3]. - The spread between local wheat and corn has widened to around 100 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises have started to purchase wheat. It is rumored that the weekly wheat auction volume will increase from 300,000 tons to 500,000 tons next week, and feed enterprises are allowed to participate, which may affect the market's bullish sentiment. The corn futures price is oscillating at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract): 2396 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton; corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2723 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9): - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7): 0 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn futures open interest (active contract): 1,411,150 lots, up 26,862 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 250,426 lots, down 6,568 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn: - 268,733 lots, down 18,165 lots; net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch: - 15,884 lots, down 1,946 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn: 76,073 lots, up 950 lots; registered warehouse receipts for corn starch: 6,560 lots, unchanged [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 319 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 460.5 cents/bushel, up 6.75 cents/bushel; CBOT corn total open interest (weekly): 1,617,461 contracts, down 38,674 contracts [2]. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn: 90,059 contracts, compared with 81,231 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2440.39 yuan/ton, up 0.98 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun: 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port: 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang: 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CIF price of imported corn: 2037.12 yuan/ton, up 35.82 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - International freight of imported corn: 58 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [2]. - Basis of the main corn contract: 44.39 yuan/ton, down 0.02 yuan/ton; basis of the main corn starch contract: 82 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [2]. - Spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; spread between cassava starch and corn starch (weekly): 657 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton [2]. - Spread between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 97 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted annual corn production in the US: 432.34 million tons, up 6.81 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.93 million hectares, up 0.49 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Brazil: 131 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Argentina: 53 million tons, unchanged; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in China: 301.24 million tons, up 6.24 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in China: 44.96 million hectares, up 0.66 million hectares [2]. - Forecasted annual corn production in Ukraine: 29 million tons, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory at southern ports (weekly): 89.2 million tons, up 11.6 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 343.7 million tons, down 41.5 million tons [2]. - Corn inventory at northern ports (weekly): 200 million tons, down 21 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 120.9 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - Monthly import volume of corn: 80 million tons, up 24 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16,740 tons, down 200 tons [2]. - Monthly output of feed: 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Inventory days of sample feed corn (weekly): 30.25 days, down 1.04 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 121.95 million tons, up 9.46 million tons [2]. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 54.08%, down 0.38 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.73%, up 1.21 percentage points [2]. - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 22 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Hebei: 114 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Jilin: 14 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.21%, up 0.07 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.45%, up 0.03 percentage points [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 14.81%, up 0.95 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 13.86%, down 2.45 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) released a global supply - demand briefing showing that the global grain production forecast for 2025 reached a record 3.029 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast of 3.023 billion tons and a 5.6% increase from the previous year [2]. - Bunge Global SA said that the Middle East war is reshaping the agricultural product market in a "price + logistics" dual - mode. On the one hand, US and global farmers are facing the pressure of soaring oil and fertilizer prices and shipping disruptions; on the other hand, the rise in grain and oilseed prices has brought sales opportunities for US and South American farmers [2]. Key Points of Concern - The mysteel weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory data on Thursday and Friday [3]. - The increase in the weekly wheat auction volume from 300,000 tons to 500,000 tons next week, allowing feed enterprises to participate, which may affect the market's bullish sentiment [3].