养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. Policy regulation and the culling of reproductive sows from March to May will determine the future market trend. Near - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The rise in both futures and spot prices is due to the small amount of remaining grain in the hands of grass - roots farmers, increasing the grain - purchasing cost for the middle and lower reaches. The key to the price inflection point lies in the resumption of state - reserve auctions and an increase in imported soybeans. It is expected that the domestic soybean market will remain strong, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [1]. Corn - In the Northeast, the remaining grass - roots grain is less than 30%. With the rise in temperature and spot prices, the remaining grain is gradually released. Some traders are selling for profit, and the post - holiday operating rate of processing enterprises has increased slightly. The overall downstream demand is fair, and the purchase price remains strong. On the 9th, all the grain sources put up for auction by the China National Grain Reserves Corporation were sold, with a large local premium. Although crude oil's sharp decline has led to a correction in corn, considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to replenish stocks or buy on dips [1]. Eggs - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, which restricts the rapid and significant increase in egg prices. However, the number of newly - laid hens from March to April 2026 will decrease significantly, and the laying - hen inventory will decline from April to May. Although the short - term supply is still loose, the downside space is limited, and it is expected that egg prices will be stable with an upward trend. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2]. Pigs - As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level, and it slightly decreased to 39.58 million in January 2026, still above the regulatory red line. The supply of pigs in the first half of 2026 will face great pressure. The state has purchased 10,000 tons of pork, indicating an oversupply. It is expected that the state will continue to purchase to ease the oversupply pressure. The industry has sufficient cash flow, and capacity reduction is difficult. If there is a deep and continuous loss in the second quarter, it will accelerate the consumption of industrial cash flow. From March to May, the spot price will be in a bottom - seeking stage, and it is expected to fall below the feed cash cost to stimulate capacity reduction [3].