【冠通期货研究报告】：油粕日报：震荡上涨-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Brazil's soybean quarantine issue has triggered speculation on near - month arrivals, but institutions have not significantly reduced Brazil's export estimates, and the problem is expected to be resolved soon. Short - term strong export demand for US soybeans and near - month arrival speculation have strengthened soybean meal, which is expected to remain strong before the state reserves release [2]. - Market rumors about the US EPA's renewable fuel blending new regulations have attracted market attention. Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel. However, due to the uncertainty of crude oil price increase, the expansion of biodiesel policies is still in the "possible" stage, and the Middle East situation and crude oil trend are the dominant factors for the rise and fall of the oil and fat sector [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.47 million tons, a 4.7% increase from 15.73 million tons in March 2025. From March 1st to 7th, the export volume was 3.71 million tons, and the estimated export volume from March 8th to 14th is 4.58 million tons, mostly concentrated in Santos Port, Paranagua Port, Bacarema Port, and São Luís do Itaqui Port. The estimated export volume from January to March may reach 26.25 - 29.19 million tons [1]. - Cargill has suspended soybean exports from Brazil to China due to Brazil's adjustment of inspection standards, which makes it difficult for traders to comply. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture has implemented stricter phytosanitary assessments at the request of the Chinese government [1]. Oils and Fats - There are market rumors that the US EPA is about to release new renewable fuel blending regulations, which may require large refineries to make up 70% of the biofuel blending exemption quota. If this happens, large refiners may sue [2]. - Indonesia's Energy Ministry is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel to cope with possible crude oil supply shortages. The test of 50% biodiesel blended fuel is expected to complete the passenger car test by the end of March, and the government is evaluating the conditions for mandatory implementation by the end of 2026 [2].