甲醇日报：中东局势反复，行情极端-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The Middle East situation is volatile, leading to extreme market conditions for methanol. The short - term volatility of crude oil has intensified, and investors should pay attention to controlling risks. They should focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line of methanol, wait for the opportunity after the callback, and closely track the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of March 4, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1443500 tons, a decrease of 3200 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 27400 tons. This week, the methanol port inventory remained basically stable, with accumulation in East China and destocking in South China. During the period, 2.003 billion tons of external ships were included, and提货 gradually recovered compared with the Spring Festival. In Jiangsu, there was concentrated unloading of external ships, leading to inventory accumulation under increased supply. In Zhejiang, individual unloading external ships were not yet included, and the inventory decreased slightly under the background of rigid demand. In South China, the inventory showed destocking. In Guangdong, there was a small amount of imported and domestic trade ship cargo replenishment, and the提货 volume of mainstream storage areas increased steadily driven by the gradual recovery of downstream industries, resulting in inventory destocking. In Fujian, only a small amount of domestic trade ship cargo arrived at the port, and the inventory fluctuated little due to rigid demand consumption [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that all parties are responsible for ensuring the stable and smooth energy supply. Market news indicated that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait would cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day. Satellite images showed that Iran was still loading crude oil at its oil terminals and transporting a large amount of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that the oil price surge was an "expected setback" and predicted that the short - term oil price would drop rapidly after the Iranian nuclear threat was eliminated. He also said that the oil price increase was lower than his expectation, and he would temporarily lift some oil - related sanctions to reduce the oil price. If Iran blocked the oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz, it would be hit twenty times more severely. Russian President Putin said that the oil production related to the Strait of Hormuz might completely stop as early as next month, and the current high commodity prices were temporary. The Novorossiysk oil terminal in Russia resumed loading. The EU Commission spokesman said that the EU oil and gas supply - related agencies would hold a meeting on the Middle East situation on Thursday. The G7 finance ministers' meeting reached a consensus not to release the oil war reserve for the time being but was "ready at any time" to release it if necessary [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The Middle East situation has not ended, and the short - term volatility of crude oil has intensified. Attention should be paid to controlling risks. For methanol, focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average on the daily K - line. Currently, wait for the opportunity after the callback, and closely track the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [3]