软商品日报：震荡为主-20260312

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating upward with strong support and limited downside space, though there is no major bull - market driver [1] - Sugar is in a stage of strong downside support but limited upward drive, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Cotton - From January to February, textile and clothing exports totaled $50.45 billion, a 17.6% increase. Textile exports were $25.57 billion, up 20.5%, and clothing exports were $24.87 billion, up 14.8% [1] - The joint rise of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton is due to factors such as tightened global supply - demand expectations, cost support, market sentiment, and policy linkage. In China, Xinjiang's policy - driven production cut strengthens the bullish market expectation. Although current spot supply is sufficient, the market focuses on the expected supply contraction in the new year. The decline in domestic commercial cotton inventory reflects the resilience of the demand side, supporting the strength of Zhengzhou cotton [1] Sugar - The international market's expectation of macro - risks has eased, and with the decline of international oil prices, the ICE raw sugar futures price adjusted to 14.32 cents per pound, a drop of 0.30 cents per pound. The raw sugar is affected by both macro - sentiment and long - term fundamental positives, and factors are complex. Geopolitical situation disturbances and the realization of the northern hemisphere's sugar production expectation difference need to be closely monitored [1] - The estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4015 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 5100 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1605 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 520 yuan per ton [2] - Sugar is generally in a stage of loose supply - demand. Since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is small, the price difference between the domestic and international markets widens after the domestic market strengthens, and the rise and fall of crude oil drives the sugar price up and down [2]