冠通期货研究报告：天然橡胶日报：高位震荡-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The rubber market is in a stage of supply - demand game. With the raw material prices remaining firm during the low - production season and increasing concerns about production, but high inventory and rising bonded - area inventory putting pressure on prices, it is expected that rubber prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to observe more and act less [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On March 12, 2026, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.06%. The overall price center of the natural rubber market rose. The intended transaction price of the mainstream SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 17,150 - 17,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnam SVR3L mixed rubber was 17,300 - 17,400 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] 2. Supply - In mid - to late February, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia gradually entered the low - production season, with raw material output lower than the same period last year and support for raw material purchase prices. Domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the winter suspension period, resulting in a supply gap for domestic rubber. The market as a whole shows a pattern of tight supply. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production should gradually decline starting from January, and production in the first quarter is likely to decline. Also, according to past rules, rubber imports in January and February are likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On March 6, 2026, the operating rate of China's semi - steel tires was 74.03%, lower than the historical average for the same period, and the operating rate of full - steel tires was 65.90%, also lower than the historical average. Currently, spot transactions are sluggish, and downstream production starts are differentiated. Tire manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and subsequent purchase orders may follow. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work and the digestion progress under high prices and high inventory. In addition, the situation in Iran has intensified market risk - aversion sentiment, and rising shipping costs are not conducive to the recovery of the demand side [3] 4. Inventory - According to the research data of Zhuochuang Information, in the week of March 6, the inventory of natural rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 133,800 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period, a rise of 3.32%. The inventory of natural rubber in the general trade warehouses in the Qingdao area was 556,300 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.13% [4]