沪铜日报：美指走强，铜价承压-20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar index. The supply of copper is expected to reach a record high in March, and the demand from downstream industries is gradually increasing. However, the inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and the increase rate has slowed down. The market trading has gradually warmed up, and the spot discount has turned into a premium. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined year-on-year. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved higher, showing a weak trend during the day [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 70 yuan/ton, and the spot premium in South China is 100 yuan/ton. On March 11, 2026, the LME official price was 1,2949 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was -985 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply Side - As of March 9, the spot smelting fee (TC) was -56.10 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -5.70 US cents/pound [8]. - The copper production in March is expected to increase by about 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. It is expected that the production in March may reach a record high [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 326,300 tons, an increase of 5,911 tons from the previous period. As of March 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 87,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 302,100 tons, an increase of 10,125 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 592,500 short tons, a decrease of 2,033 short tons from the previous period [11]. - Downstream Demand: The operating rate of the copper cable industry in February was 55.81%, a decrease of 14.29 percentage points month-on-month and an increase of 9.06 percentage points year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles in February decreased year-on-year, with production and sales of 694,000 and 796,000 vehicles respectively, a year-on-year decline of 21.8% and 14.2%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total sales of new vehicles [1].