玉米淀粉日报-20260312

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of U.S. corn has weakened, and crude oil is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is predicted that U.S. corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. North China corn supply is still low, and the spot price of corn continues to rise, while the purchase price at the northern port is stable today. The price of wheat in North China continues to rise, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn remains low. However, farmers' grain sales are expected to increase in March, so the upward space for Northeast corn spot is limited, and the 05 corn contract will maintain a high - level oscillation [7]. - The 05 U.S. corn has support at 450 cents per bushel. It is advisable to wait and see for the 05 corn contract. For the 05 corn and starch, it is recommended to widen the spread when the price is low [8][9]. - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Data - Futures data: For different futures contracts such as C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, CS2509, information on closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interest, and open interest change percentages is provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2371, with a price increase of 3 and a price increase percentage of 0.13%, a trading volume of 2,455 with a decrease of 22.04%, and an open interest of 12,128 with an increase of 4.16% [1]. - Spot price data: The spot prices and price changes of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are given. For example, the spot price in Qinggang is 2230 with a price increase of 10 [1]. - Starch price data: The spot prices and price changes of starch in different enterprises such as Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade are provided. For example, the spot price of Longfeng is 2830 with no price change [4]. - Spread data: Information on corn inter - period spreads, starch inter - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads is provided. For example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 25 with a change of 2 [4]. Market Analysis - Corn: Crude oil prices have risen, U.S. corn prices have increased, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. U.S. corn will continue to oscillate strongly. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July at 2319 yuan. The northern port's flat - hatch price is stable at around 2410 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area continues to rise. The deep - processing start - up rate has increased, and the spot price of corn continues to rise. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn remains low. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, the price of North China wheat is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened, reducing corn's cost - effectiveness. The domestic breeding demand is average, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the downstream has replenished stocks. The supply of Northeast corn has increased recently, and the price has continued to rise. The port inventory is low, and the purchase price at the northern port is stable today. The 05 corn contract oscillates strongly, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the auction policy [3][5]. - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong is still low, the spot price of Shandong corn is strong, and the starch price in Shandong is around 2970 yuan. The spot price of Northeast starch is also rising. This week, the corn starch inventory has decreased to 120.9 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The average income from by - products in the past few years has been over 600 yuan, and today the by - product contribution in Shandong is 652 yuan (713 yuan in Heilongjiang). The by - product price is relatively strong recently, higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. North China corn is strong in the short term, and Northeast corn is still rising. As the weather warms up, the supply of corn is expected to increase, the downstream start - up rate will increase, and the upward space for the corn spot price is limited. Enterprises are already profitable. The 05 starch contract oscillates strongly following corn, and the starch spot price is rising in the short term. It is expected that the 05 starch contract will oscillate within a narrow range in the short term [6]. Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the northern port's corn flat - hatch price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different indicators [13][14][18].