乙二醇日报：进口和油制供应面临双重冲击，关注EG连续补涨可能-20260312

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose by 65 yuan to 4385 yuan/ton, while the spot price remained flat at 4285 yuan/ton. The basis (spot - futures) widened from -35 yuan/ton to -100 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper futures premium [2][39]. - Open Interest and Trading Volume: Open interest increased by 28,121 lots to 334,653 lots, a 9.17% increase, while trading volume decreased by 146,022 lots to 939,371 lots, a 13.45% decrease. This may suggest that market participants are taking a wait - and - see attitude or increasing their positions while trading activity declines [2][39]. Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 63.83%, with the oil - based operating rate at 60.11% and the coal - based operating rate at 63.6%. Coal - based, natural gas - based, and associated gas - based production profits increased significantly, while ethylene - based production profits declined, indicating that low - cost production methods have improved profitability, but overall supply remained stable [2][40]. - Demand Side: The load of polyester factories was 89.42% and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 63.43%, both remaining unchanged, indicating stable demand [3][41]. - Inventory Side: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 66,000 tons to 1,068,000 tons, a 6.59% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 56,000 tons to 561,000 tons, an 11.09% increase, indicating an inventory build - up and potential supply surplus [3][41]. Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The current inventory is accumulating, demand is stable but not high, and supply is stable. The increase in futures prices may be driven by expectations or capital, but the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that prices may fluctuate or face downward pressure unless demand improves or supply decreases. The reasons include the improvement in coal - based production profits but the deterioration in oil - based production profits, the possible increase in foreign arrivals (indicated by the inventory increase), stable downstream operating rates, and high port inventory pressure [45].