【冠通期货研究报告】：PP日报：高开后震荡运行-20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to avoid over - competition. The Middle East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PP price is likely to rise in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level. The overall downstream operating rate of PP showed seasonal changes. On March 12, the number of shutdown devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 75.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawn wire dropped to about 25.5%. The petrochemical inventory has been decreasing continuously after the Spring Festival and is currently at a neutral level in recent years. Although the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed was slow. Coupled with the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the crude oil price rebounded sharply. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories increased, the rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film rose. The shortage of raw materials led to an increase in the reduction of the load of olefin plants at home and abroad, and the downstream showed resistance to high prices, resulting in weak spot trading [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 8270 yuan/ton, the highest price was 8697 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 8303 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 4.06%. The open interest decreased by 10,939 lots to 410,773 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions rose. The price of drawn wire was reported at 7470 - 8580 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On March 12, the number of shutdown devices changed little. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 75.5%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawn wire dropped to about 25.5% [4] Demand - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level. The overall downstream operating rate of PP showed seasonal changes [4] Inventory - On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 800,000 tons week - on - week, 20,000 tons higher than the same lunar period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $98 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $20 per ton to $1130 per ton week - on - week [4]