原油、燃料油日报：中东地区三艘油轮遇袭，油价再次上扬-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East support oil prices, but the release of emergency reserves by the IEA may offset some supply risks. On the demand side, strong refinery operations in India provide support, while the risk of aviation fuel shortages and government subsidy policies suppress the upside potential. The release of reserves will increase short - term supply, but price fluctuations caused by conflicts may continue [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: On March 11, 2026, WTI crude oil futures closed at $86.39 per barrel, up slightly from the opening of $78.87, with a high of $91.27 and a low of $85.08. Brent crude oil futures closed at $91.4 per barrel, up from the opening of $84.31, with a high of $93.32 and a low of $89.79. SC crude oil futures closed at 666.3 yuan per barrel, up slightly from the opening of 664.1 yuan, with a high of 771.8 yuan and a low of 664.8 yuan. The Brent - WTI spread closed at $5.01 per barrel, slightly down from the opening of $5.44. The SC - Brent spread closed at $5.56 per barrel, significantly weaker than the opening of $11.93. The SC - WTI spread closed at $10.57 per barrel, weaker than the opening of $17.37. The SC continuous - contango 3 spread closed at 37.9 yuan per barrel, significantly down from the opening of 80.1 yuan, indicating a narrowing of the near - far month spread [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: No relevant data provided [88]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The supply side is affected by geopolitical disturbances and attempts to increase production. Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Oman's oil storage facilities increase the risk of supply disruptions. OPEC +'s idle capacity and export uncertainties are rising, and the IEA proposes to release the largest - ever emergency oil reserves [2]. - Demand Side: Demand shows differentiation. Indian refineries are operating at full capacity, indicating strong refined oil demand. However, the risk of aviation fuel shortages and government subsidy policies in some countries suppress demand [2]. - Inventory Side: The IEA proposes to release large - scale emergency oil reserves, which may increase short - term inventory supply in OECD member countries and relieve the inventory pressure in the US Cushing and commercial crude oil. But geopolitical risks may affect non - member country inventories [2]. c. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East support oil prices, but the release of emergency reserves by the IEA may offset some supply risks. On the demand side, strong refinery operations in India provide support, while the risk of aviation fuel shortages and government subsidy policies suppress the upside potential. The release of reserves will increase short - term supply, but price fluctuations caused by conflicts may continue [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On March 11, 2026, SC was 662.00 yuan per barrel, down 0.65% from the previous day; WTI was $87.07 per barrel, up 0.79%; Brent was $93.63 per barrel, up 2.44%. - Spot Prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $102.40 per barrel. Brent spot price was $91.74 per barrel, up 3.87%; Oman was $119.71 per barrel, up 3.84%; Victory was $85.94 per barrel, down 3.77%; Dubai was $119.69 per barrel, up 3.55%; ESPO was $82.40 per barrel, down 5.50%; Duri was $89.37 per barrel, down 3.06%. - Spreads: SC - Brent spread was $2.73 per barrel, down 50.90%; SC - WTI spread was $9.29 per barrel, down 12.11%; Brent - WTI spread was $6.56 per barrel, up 30.94%; SC continuous - contango 3 spread was 35.50 yuan per barrel, down 6.33%. - Other Assets: The US dollar index was 99.20, up 0.28%; the S&P 500 was 6,775.80, down 0.08%; the DAX index was 23,640.03, down 1.37%; the RMB exchange rate was 6.87, down 0.03%. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory was 44,310.30 million barrels, up 0.87%; Cushing inventory was 2,658.00 million barrels, up 0.44%; US strategic reserve inventory was 41,544.20 million barrels, up 0.00%; API inventory was 46,621.80 million barrels, down 0.36%. - Refinery Operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate was 90.80%, up 1.79%; the US refinery crude oil processing volume was 1,616.90 million barrels per day, up 2.07% [5]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: On March 11, 2026, FU was 4,318.00 yuan per ton, down 1.55%; LU was 5,050.00 yuan per ton, up 2.89%; NYMEX fuel oil was 378.10 cents per gallon, up 11.25%. - Spot Prices: Some spot prices remained unchanged, while some decreased. For example, the price of marine 180CST Singapore FOB was $580.40 per ton, down 2.29%; the price of marine 380Cst Singapore FOB was $574.16 per ton, down 2.53%. - Paper Prices: High - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore's near - month contracts decreased. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was $166.78 per ton, up 7.54%; the Chinese high - low sulfur spread was 732.00 yuan per ton, up 40.23%; LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) was - 3,131.00 yuan per ton, up 4.34%; FU - Singapore 380CST was - 2,617.00 yuan per ton, down 2.67%. - Platts Prices: Platts (380CST) was $646.60 per ton, up 52.11%; Platts (180CST) was $650.96 per ton, up 51.22%. - Inventory: Singapore's inventory was 2,328.60 million tons, up 2.89%; US distillate inventories showed different changes [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - India's crude oil supply is considered safe and sustainable. - Iraq requests to transport at least 100,000 barrels per day of crude oil through the Kurdish pipeline network to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) asks its on - shore oil partners to extract Murban crude oil from Jebel Dhanna Port [7][8]. b. Demand - Indian refineries are operating at full capacity. - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer will meet with relevant parties to discuss gasoline prices. - Vietnam Airlines may face a shortage of aviation fuel from April due to the Middle East conflict. - Italy is evaluating a mechanism to reduce gasoline prices. - Thailand is using a fuel fund to subsidize diesel. - Some airlines are raising fuel surcharges and ticket prices. - Vietnam is taking measures to reduce the impact of rising fuel costs on consumers [9]. c. Inventory - India welcomes the IEA's decision to release emergency oil reserves. - France's President Macron supports the IEA's move, and the US President Trump agrees. - Oman's Salalah Port's oil storage facilities are reported to be attacked. - The IEA is proposing to release the largest - ever emergency oil reserves [9]. d. Market Information - Iran threatens to attack US, Israeli and related vessels and block the Strait of Hormuz. - India is closely monitoring the safety of oil - carrying vessels in the Persian Gulf. - The crude oil price for Russian tax calculation has risen by 82% since February 27. - The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer says that the impact of global oil and gas price fluctuations on consumer energy prices is still significant [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes various data charts such as WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., with data sources including WIND, EIA, PAJ, iFinD [12][14][16].