塑料日报：高开后震荡运行-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involution. The Middle East situation boosts the energy - chemical industry. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, plastic prices are likely to rise in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 12, new shutdown devices such as Shanghai Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 88%, currently at a neutral level. As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels. Petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons during the Spring Festival and has been continuously decreasing. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no plans for new production capacity in the first quarter. After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and the prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China increased. However, downstream resistance to high prices led to weak spot transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, increased positions, and fluctuated. The lowest price was 8,190 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,617 yuan/ton, and it closed at 8,236 yuan/ton, up 4.17%. The position increased by 4,435 lots to 327,108 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7,880 - 8,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,980 - 11,010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8,040 - 8,800 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 12, new shutdown devices such as Shanghai Petrochemical's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 88%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream factories gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 800,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, currently at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $98/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $970/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $940/ton week - on - week [4]