原油日报：震荡上行-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, with further production increase plans undetermined and subject to adjustment later. The move is mainly to address the significant decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months. Amid frequent Middle - East situation news, it is recommended to watch cautiously and focus on the Middle - East situation and crude oil export conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 行情分析 - OPEC+ will increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the next meeting is on April 5. EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, but refined oil destocking was significant, leading to an overall decrease in oil product inventory. The U.S., Israel, and Iran are still in mutual attacks. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, causing Middle - East oil - producing countries to cut production. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, about one - third of their total production capacity and 6% of global supply. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months [1]. 期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 11.26% to 722.3 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 665.2 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 776.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,873 to 32,742 lots [2]. 基本面跟踪 - EIA's latest short - term energy outlook expects the 2026 Brent crude oil price to be $78.84 per barrel (previously $57.69 per barrel) and $64.47 per barrel in 2027 (previously $53 per barrel). Due to the Middle - East conflict, it is expected that Brent crude oil prices will remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and fall to $80 per barrel in the third quarter. EIA expects 2026 global oil production to be 107 million barrels per day (previously 107.8 million barrels per day) and global oil demand to be 105.2 million barrels per day (previously 104.8 million barrels per day). OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 to 106.53 million barrels per day and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 to 107.87 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of March 11, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending March 6, U.S. crude oil inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels (expected 1.055 million barrels), 2.15% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventory decreased by 3.654 million barrels (expected 2.649 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 1.349 million barrels (expected 0.692 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels. OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.164 million barrels per day from January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. U.S. crude oil production in the week of March 6 decreased by 0.018 million barrels per day to 13.678 million barrels per day, near the historical high [4]. - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 21.043 million barrels per day, a 4.35% increase from the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production increased 11.44% to 9.241 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.754 million barrels per day, a 2.55% increase from the same period last year; diesel weekly production increased 9.92% to 4.065 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 4.103 million barrels per day, a 1.70% increase from the same period last year. The increase in gasoline and diesel production drove a 6.71% increase in the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products [5][7].