每日核心期货品种分析-20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on March 12, 2026, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like p-xylene, low-sulfur fuel oil, and SC crude oil had significant increases, while others like apples, silver, and palladium declined. The market was affected by various factors including the Middle East situation, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events [6][7]. - Different commodities had different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper was affected by supply - demand and the Middle East situation, while crude oil was highly influenced by OPEC+ production decisions, the Iran - related conflict, and inventory data [9][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - Supply: March production is expected to reach a record high with a month - on - month increase of about 52,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [9]. - Demand: Downstream demand for copper is increasing after the holiday, but the inventory is still accumulating, though at a slower pace. The copper cable industry's February opening rate was 55.81%, down 14.29 percentage points month - on - month but up 9.06 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - Price: Due to the Middle East situation and inflation, copper prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Price: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous working day; industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 154,500 yuan/ton, down 1,250 yuan/ton [11]. - Supply: March production is expected to be 106,700 tons, up 29.4% month - on - month, and the start - up rate has increased by nearly 2% this week [11]. - Demand: Overall demand is weakening, and exports are postponed. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate of decrease is narrowing [11]. - Price: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The US crude oil inventory has increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory has decreased [12]. - Geopolitical: The conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, has a significant impact on the oil market. The Strait of Hormuz has been affected, leading to production cuts in some Middle Eastern countries [12][13]. - Price: EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months. It is recommended to observe the Middle East situation carefully [13]. Asphalt - Supply: The opening rate last week was 23.3%, up 1.9 percentage points month - on - month but 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The expected production in March is 2.187 million tons, up 13.0% month - on - month but down 1.9% year - on - year [14]. - Demand: Downstream industries' opening rates are rising, and the shipment volume has increased by 19.86% to 156,300 tons [14]. - Price: It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the raw material shortage of domestic refineries [14]. PP - Supply: As of March 6, the downstream opening rate was 45.87%, up 9.13 percentage points week - on - week. The enterprise opening rate on March 12 was about 75.5%, and the production ratio of standard wire drawing decreased to about 25.5% [16]. - Demand: After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories' demand has increased, and the price of BOPP film has risen [16]. - Price: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the price is likely to rise [16]. Plastic - Supply: On March 12, the opening rate decreased to about 88%. As of March 6, the PE downstream opening rate was 28.62%, up 10.4 percentage points week - on - week. New production capacity has been put into operation, and there are no new plans in the first quarter [17]. - Demand: After the Lantern Festival, downstream demand has increased, and the prices of agricultural films in some regions have risen [17]. - Price: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the price is likely to rise [18]. PVC - Supply: The opening rate decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 81.11%. The downstream average opening rate increased by 18.73 percentage points to 35.84% [19]. - Demand: Exports have improved, but the social inventory is still high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time [19]. - Price: If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the price is likely to rise [19]. Coking Coal - Supply: The mine opening rate has reached 87.16%, up 4.84% week - on - week. The production and opening rate are higher than the same period [20]. - Demand: Affected by the overseas conflict, the downstream purchasing sentiment has increased, and the inventory has decreased significantly [20][21]. - Price: The price rebound is mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices. After the sentiment is digested, there is an expectation of a return to the fundamental level [21]. Urea - Supply: The supply is stable and strong, with high daily production and state - reserve release. The market has abundant goods, and short - term stops and restarts are frequent, with the daily production basically within 230,000 tons [22]. - Demand: The downstream industrial demand is accelerating, and the inventory has decreased by 12.79%. The production of compound fertilizers is in the peak season [22]. - Price: After the cautious sentiment fades, there may be a correction [22].