银河期货农产品日报-20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The exchange decided to raise the trading margin and daily price limit for Apple 2604 and 2605 contracts, causing some funds to leave the market and most of the previous gains to reverse. The price of the May contract has fallen to around 9,900 yuan/ton, and there may be limited room for further decline based on previous warehouse receipt costs. However, if funds are strongly inclined to leave, the price may drop further. With the approaching key growing season of new - season apples, the market is expected to focus on the production of new - season apples, which are likely to have an increased yield, and there are more flower buds year - on - year. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies in the short term [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index was 110.41, down 0.15 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties in different regions remained stable, such as the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples at 4.20 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.76 yuan, down 0.25 from the previous day [2]. - Futures Prices: AP01 closed at 8,530, down 30; AP05 closed at 9,984, down 252; AP10 closed at 8,636, down 21. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 increased by 222, AP05 - AP10 decreased by 231, and AP10 - AP01 increased by 9 [2]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 increased by 50 to - 530; against AP05 increased by 252 to - 1,984; against AP10 increased by 21 to - 636 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - Market News: As of March 12, 2026, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 4.9972 million tons, a decrease of 278,100 tons from the previous week and 243,400 tons year - on - year, a decrease of 4.6%. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. The import volume was 3,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. The prices of apples in the main production areas were stable, with high procurement enthusiasm from merchants, good demand for high - quality goods, and an increase in market arrivals. The overall sales were okay, and the prices of high - quality goods showed an upward trend [7]. - Trading Logic: Due to the exchange's decision to raise margins and price limits, funds left the market, causing price drops. The May contract price has limited downward space based on costs, but could fall further if funds continue to leave. The market will focus on new - season apple production, and it is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [5]. - Trading Strategies: - Single - side: Focus on the October contract and short on rallies in the short term [6]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][11][12][14][17][19][21][24].