白糖日报-20260312

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong upward trend in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are also expected to be in a slightly strong upward trend in the short - term [9][10] - For the domestic sugar market, the prices are likely to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. In the short - term, the prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a long position in the single - side trade, adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and sell put options [10][11][12] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,447, down 1 (-0.02%); SR01 closed at 5,568, down 1 (-0.02%); SR05 closed at 5,416, down 7 (-0.13%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had corresponding changes [3] - Spot Market: The spot prices of sugar in different regions had different changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou increased by 30 to 5480 yuan/ton, while the prices in Kunming, Wuhan, etc. remained unchanged [3] - Basis: The basis in different regions varied, such as 64 in Liuzhou, - 96 in Kunming [3] - Inter - month Spread: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 152, down 6; SR09 - SR05 spread was 31, up 6; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 121, unchanged [3] - Import Profit: The import profit from Brazil and Thailand was calculated, with the quota - free price and out - of - quota price and their spreads with domestic prices provided [3] Market Judgment - Important Information: As of the current incomplete statistics, 8 sugar mills in Zhanjiang have completed the crushing process in the 25/26 sugar - making season, and 9 are yet to finish, with the progress slower than the same period last year. As of the end of February in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 49.67 million tons, lower than 52.98 million tons in the same period last year, and the sugar yield rate was 10.14%, slightly lower than 10.30% in the same period last year [5] - Important Information: The spot quotes of sugar in the main producing areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6] - Important Information: The well - known consulting firm StoneX recently adjusted the estimated global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 sugar - making season from 2.9 million tons to about 0.87 million tons, a decrease of 70%. The main reduction in the global surplus expectation came from India. For the 2026/27 sugar - making season in the central - southern region of Brazil, StoneX expected the sugarcane crushing volume to reach 620.5 million tons, but due to the decreased attractiveness of sugar compared to ethanol, the sugar - making ratio dropped from the previously estimated 49.3% to 48.7%, and the sugar production in this region was expected to drop to about 40 million tons, about 0.7 million tons less than the previous forecast [8] - Logical Analysis: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand in this sugar - making season is likely to be lower than market expectations, especially India has repeatedly lowered its sugar production forecast. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has also lowered its global sugar production and surplus forecasts. Most global institutions are lowering their 2026/27 global sugar production expectations, which strongly supports international sugar prices. Domestically, the domestic sugar is in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this sugar - making season is likely to increase significantly, putting pressure on the supply side. However, considering the relatively low sugar prices and the possible tightening of import policies in the future, the sugar prices are expected to be influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. In the short - term, due to the high price of crude oil and the sharp rise in international sugar prices, the domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate slightly upwards [9] Related Attached Figures - The report provides multiple figures, including the monthly inventory and production of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contracts [14][19][21]