鸡蛋日报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.06 yuan/jin, and that in the main selling areas is 3.27 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg price remains stable, with prices in various regions mostly unchanged [4]. - In February, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - From March 5th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. - As of the week of March 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week, while the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7]. - Today, the national culled hen price rose, with the average price in the main producing areas at 5.16 yuan/jin, a 0.02 - yuan increase from the previous trading day [7]. 2. Trading Logic - The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the egg consumption off - season after the Spring Festival and the recent good egg price performance weakening the overall reduction, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].