橡胶甲醇原油：地缘情绪升温，能化震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly closing lower. The closing price dropped 0.06% to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 95 yuan/ton. As the new rubber - tapping season approaches, Shanghai rubber lacks the impetus to continue rising, and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, stabilizing and rebounding, and sharply closing higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,904 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,688 yuan/ton. At the close, it sharply rose 4.60% to 2,726 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 156 yuan/ton. Affected by short - term geopolitical risks, methanol continued to rise, but lacked fundamental support. It is expected that the methanol futures may run out of steam in the future [7]. - Crude Oil: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strongly rising, and sharply closing higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 776.0 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 665.2 yuan/barrel. At the close, it sharply rose 11.26% to 722.3 yuan/barrel. As Iran continued to block the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risks increased again, and the crude oil premium rebounded. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons or 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%, and the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 4.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.70 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 2.15 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.89 percentage points [9]. - As of March 6, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. After the Spring Festival, tire enterprises actively resumed work and production, and most enterprises had returned to the normal level during the week, which boosted the capacity utilization rate of the overall sample enterprises. It is expected that there is still a small room for improvement in the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises next week. However, the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has increased the resistance to order shipments in the Middle East, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises [9]. - In February 2026, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index for February 2026. Affected by factors such as holidays, the logistics activity slowed down steadily. The China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in February 2026 was 47.5%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month. The number of effective working days this month was significantly less than in previous years. At the same time, the business activity expectation index in February was 51%, remaining in the expansion range [10]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.41%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.11%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.73%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 8.70%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0732 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 16,400 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 64,200 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 129,400 tons compared with 1.9438 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 28.27%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.61%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.35%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 85.73%, a week - on - week slight increase of 5.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.83%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of February 27, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.65%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.44 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 2.65%. As of February 27, 2026, the futures contract profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 43 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 39 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 246 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 975,300 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 32,600 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 44,600 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 76,200 tons. As of the week of March 12, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 523,100 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 29,300 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 182,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 140,400 tons compared with 382,700 tons last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week slight increase of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 93. As of the week of March 6, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.678 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year slight increase of 103,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of March 6, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 443 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.824 million barrels and a year - on - year slight increase of 778,000 barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, in the United States reached 26.58 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 117,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415.442 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 100,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.8%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.6 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.3 percentage points [13]. - As of March 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 172,150 contracts, a week - on - week slight decrease of 562 contracts and a significant increase of 33,041 contracts or 23.75% compared with the average in February of 139,109 contracts. On the other hand, as of March 3, 2026, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 246,514 contracts, a week - on - week significant decrease of 54,198 contracts and a significant increase of 85,120 contracts or 52.74% compared with the average in February of 161,394 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 17,000 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 17,075 yuan/ton | - 105 yuan/ton | - 75 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,710 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,726 yuan/ton | +68 yuan/ton | - 16 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 592.6 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 722.3 yuan/barrel | +60.3 yuan/barrel | - 129.7 yuan/barrel | - 60.0 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: There are charts related to rubber, including rubber basis, rubber 5 - 9 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [16][17][19][22][24][26]. - Methanol: There are charts related to methanol, including methanol basis, methanol 5 - 9 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][32][34][36][38]. - Crude Oil: There are charts related to crude oil, including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44][46][48][50].