化工“双碳”，双碳迎来顶层护航

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the fundamental support from the dual carbon policy [8]. Core Insights - The approval of the "Ecological Environment Code" by the National People's Congress is expected to transform carbon emission constraints from administrative guidance to legal responsibilities, significantly impacting the supply logic and capital expenditure behavior in the chemical industry [12][14]. - The dual carbon initiative is gaining unprecedented attention from provincial leaders, with a notable increase in focus since September 2025, suggesting a stronger push for carbon control during the 14th Five-Year Plan [19]. - High carbon intensity sectors, such as ammonia fertilizer and coal chemical industries, are likely to face stricter capacity constraints, marking the end of growth models based on capital expenditure expansion [30][31]. - Capital expenditure in the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors has shown a trend of contraction since 2024, indicating a decline in supply expansion willingness [34]. Summary by Sections 1. Legislative Direction Supporting Dual Carbon - The "Ecological Environment Code" aims to provide a comprehensive legal framework for green and low-carbon development, enhancing the authority and enforceability of dual carbon targets [12][13]. - The code outlines responsibilities for carbon footprint management and market regulation, indicating a shift towards legally binding carbon reduction obligations for major emitters [14][15]. 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Leaders in the oil-based chemical industry, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from stricter capacity approvals and improved industry dynamics [40]. 2. Low-emission leaders in the coal-based chemical sector, including Baofeng Energy and Luxi Chemical, which are positioned to enhance market share and profitability amid supply stabilization [41]. 3. Low-carbon and high-value leaders in other segments, such as fluorine chemicals and polyurethane, which are anticipated to thrive under enhanced carbon constraints [41].