棉花内外价差分析

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global cotton production in the 26/27 season is likely to decrease. The improvement in Sino - US relations and the global monetary easing cycle will boost demand. Given the low absolute price of US cotton, it is expected to rise in 2026. [5] - The domestic cotton market has fundamental support. With the reduction in cotton planting area in the new season and good downstream consumption, the cotton price is likely to remain strong. [5] - The internal - external price difference of cotton is expected to remain at the current level and may return slightly, but the amplitude is limited. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Background Introduction - From November, the domestic cotton 05 contract price rose from around 13,500 yuan/ton to around 15,100 yuan/ton (a 12% increase), and US cotton rose from 63 cents/pound to a maximum of 65.7 cents/pound (a 4.3% increase). The internal - external price difference expanded from 1,600 yuan/ton to around 2,900 yuan/ton, at a slightly higher level in history. [4] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The global cotton production in the 26/27 season is likely to decrease. The improvement in Sino - US relations is beneficial for US cotton signing, and the global monetary easing cycle will boost consumption. US cotton is expected to rise in 2026. [5] - The domestic cotton market has fundamental support. The reduction in cotton planting area in the new season and good downstream consumption will keep the cotton price strong. [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - The internal - external price difference of cotton is expected to remain at the current level and may return slightly, but the amplitude is limited. [5] 3.2 Second Part: Market Analysis 3.2.1 Internal - External Price Difference Correlation Analysis - The long - term correlation between domestic and US cotton is strong, but the short - term correlation has weakened. The internal - external price difference is at a slightly higher level in the same period of history. [9] - The long - term correlation coefficient between US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton since 2008 is 0.874, but in recent years, especially recently, the correlation has decreased. In 2025, the correlation dropped to - 0.165. The reasons are the significant decrease in imported cotton volume due to Sino - US trade issues and different fundamental drivers of the two markets. [12] - The historical patterns of internal - external price differences: Policy support is the root of "strong domestic prices", international supply - demand surplus is the basis of "weak external prices", and a large price difference stimulates imports, which in turn exerts pressure on price difference correction. The differences are that the 2011 - 2013 price difference was caused by administrative market support, the 2022 price difference was due to the collapse of domestic demand, and the 2026 price difference is driven by expectations. [11] 3.2.2 Analysis of the Reasons for the Rise in Domestic Cotton Prices - Since November when new cotton was listed, cotton sales have been better than in previous years. As of January 8, 2025, the cumulative sales of lint cotton were 409.3 million tons, an increase of 195.7 million tons year - on - year and 231.8 million tons more than the four - year average. [19] - There is an expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area in the new season. According to the Xinjiang Cotton Association, the target planting area in Xinjiang may be reduced to 36 million mu in 2026, a decrease of 2.66 million mu (7%) compared to 2025. [23] - On the supply side, although there was an increase in production this year, the sales are good. If the inventory reduction is fast after the Spring Festival, it may have a positive impact on the price. On the demand side, the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the expected monetary easing will boost cotton demand. [27] 3.2.3 Analysis of the Reasons for the Fluctuation of US Cotton Prices - As of January 22, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 1.7131 million tons, 10 percentage points lower year - on - year, and the signing progress was 66%, 22 percentage points behind the five - year average. The main reason is the low signing volume from China. However, recently, China has started to sign US cotton, which is expected to improve the situation. [28] - In the new season, the US cotton planting area may be reduced. According to a survey, the intended planting area in 2026 is 9.005 million acres, slightly lower than 9.277 million acres in 2025. Considering the current cotton - grain price ratio, the planting area in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease. [31] - The IMF has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026. It is expected that the consumption in 2026 will be better than in 2025, which is beneficial for US cotton demand. [35] 3.2.4 Summary - The domestic cotton market has fundamental support. On the supply side, although there was an increase in production this year, the sales are fast, and there is an expectation of a reduction in planting area in the new season. On the demand side, the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the expected monetary easing will boost demand. [37] - US cotton is likely to fluctuate in the short term, but it is expected to rise in the future as the global cotton production is likely to decrease and demand is likely to improve. [38] - The internal - external price difference is expected to remain at a slightly higher - than - average level. In the short term, it may remain high or widen further, and in the long term, it may return as China's purchases of US cotton increase. [39] - The issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas is expected to remain low. If there is a significant reduction in Xinjiang cotton production in the new season, the import of cotton may increase in the second half of the year, but the short - term impact is limited. [38]