山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.66%, Shanghai Silver closed down 2.51%, Platinum closed down 0.94%, and Palladium closed up 2.08%. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and volatile in the short - term, oscillate at a low level in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, trade war risks have eased, and the risk of geopolitical unrest in the Middle East may become normalized. The US employment is strong, inflation pressure remains, the expectation of interest rate cuts is low, and the US dollar index is strong [1]. - The US and Israel's air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction. The world is facing rising energy costs and the threat of stagflation, and the market is worried that the Middle East conflict may be long - term [1]. - In February, US inflation cooled steadily, and the market still pays attention to the impact of energy prices. US employment unexpectedly decreased in February, and the unemployment rate rose, challenging the Fed's view of a stable labor market. The co - existence of weak employment and high inflation puts the Fed in a dilemma. The Fed's January meeting minutes show that there are significant differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, and for the first time, the possibility of raising interest rates is clearly mentioned. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's interest rate cuts are nearing the end, and the next cut may be in September. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under pressure and have declined [1]. - The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply; the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is expected to be strong; the short - term demand for palladium remains resilient, but it faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is weak and volatile, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Summary by Directory Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - International prices: Comex Gold active contract closed at $5183.90 per ounce, down $14.80 (-0.28%) from the previous day and up $32.30 (0.63%) from last week; London Gold closed at $5182.40 per ounce, down $27.30 (-0.52%) from the previous day and up $33.85 (0.66%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1148.10 yuan per gram, down 3.88 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous day and down 3.90 yuan (-0.34%) from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1146.26 yuan per gram, down 4.04 yuan (-0.35%) from the previous day and down 2.30 yuan (-0.20%) from last week [2]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and ETF holdings are also provided [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - International prices: Comex Silver active contract closed at $85.91 per ounce, down $2.66 (-3.00%) from the previous day and up $2.15 (2.56%) from last week; London Silver closed at $86.23 per ounce, down $2.30 (-2.59%) from the previous day and down $0.55 (-0.64%) from last week [4]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 22062.00 yuan per kilogram, down 194.00 yuan (-0.87%) from the previous day and up 423.00 yuan (1.95%) from last week; Silver T + D closed at 21851.00 yuan per kilogram, down 148.00 yuan (-0.67%) from the previous day and up 783.00 yuan (3.72%) from last week [4]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and ETF holdings are also provided [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - International prices: NYMEX Platinum active contract closed at $2178.60 per ounce, up $12.90 (0.60%) from the previous day and up $156.50 (7.74%) from last week; London Platinum closed at $2138.00 per ounce, down $7.00 (-0.33%) from the previous day and up $143.00 (7.17%) from last week [6]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 551.85 yuan per gram, up 28.05 yuan (5.36%) from the previous day and up 6.80 yuan (1.25%) from last week; Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange closed at 545.09 yuan per gram, up 20.04 yuan (3.82%) from the previous day and up 1.10 yuan (0.20%) from last week [6]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, and CFTC management fund net positions are also provided [6]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. - International prices: NYMEX Palladium active contract closed at $1809.50 per ounce, up $38.00 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $100.00 (5.85%) from last week; London Palladium closed at $1727.00 per ounce, up $65.00 (3.71%) from the previous day and up $65.00 (3.91%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 438.45 yuan per gram, up 21.65 yuan (5.19%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.07%) from last week [7]. - Other data: Changes in positions, inventories, and CFTC management fund net positions are also provided [7]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points; Fed's total assets are $66794.27 billion, up $148.41 billion (0.00%) [8]. - Other economic data such as M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [8][10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2026/3/18 to 2027/12/8 is presented in a table [12].