Shanghai Securities·2026-03-12 12:17Core Insights - The report identifies three main engines driving the transformation of the new consumption sector: AI + consumption, emotional economy, and new quality retail [2][3][4] AI + Consumption - AI technology is seen as a catalyst for consumption, with the potential to become a market hotspot. By the first half of 2025, the user base for generative AI products in China is expected to reach 515 million, a growth of 266 million from December 2024, with a penetration rate of 36.5% [2] - AI technologies such as large models, chips, embodied intelligence, and digital innovations are expected to comprehensively upgrade consumer goods across production, supply chain, and operational selection [2] Emotional Economy - Changes in economic demographics are giving rise to an emotional consumption market projected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan. The emotional consumption market in China is expected to grow from 1.63 trillion yuan in 2022 to 2.72 trillion yuan in 2025 and exceed 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029 [3] - Emotional consumption scenarios are rapidly expanding, with trends in collectibles, shopping, cultural tourism, pets, technology, and dining gaining traction among younger consumers [3] New Quality Retail - The shift from traditional retail to new quality retail focuses on enhancing consumer experience and value reconstruction. New quality retail includes aspects like quality-price ratio consumption and instant retail, optimizing supply-side offerings [4] - For instance, Sam's Club in China is projected to achieve sales of over 140 billion yuan by 2025, with online business accounting for about 50% of its sales [4] Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the AI + consumption sector include Luxshare Precision, Goertek, DJI, and Xiaomi in various AI product categories [5] - In the emotional consumption space, companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji are highlighted, along with brands in outdoor sports and beauty sectors [5] Market Overview - The overall consumption industry in 2025 is expected to show structural changes, with a focus on upgrading consumption quality and enhancing consumer experiences [19][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, which are expected to continue into 2026 [28][29] Economic Context - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth in China is projected to remain significant, with a contribution rate of 53.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 9 percentage point increase from the previous year [18][36] - The report notes that the consumer market in China still has substantial growth potential, with the final consumption expenditure expected to rise from approximately 57% to 60% of GDP by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [28][36] Demographic Trends - The report highlights the aging population and declining birth rates in China, with the Z generation gradually becoming the main consumer force. This demographic shift is expected to drive new consumption patterns focused on emotional value and sustainability [40][41] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the integration of AI technology into the consumption sector, creating new market opportunities and innovative products [45][46] - The AI + consumption landscape is expected to evolve with advancements in AI-powered products, including smart home devices and wearables, which are projected to reshape consumer lifestyles [62][63]