玻璃纯碱向下空间有限，未来可以乐观一点

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass prices around 1000 yuan/ton and soda ash prices around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton have limited downward space in the long - term [115]. - The market in the first half of 2026 may be a volatile one, with limited continuous downward space at low levels and limited upward space at high levels, but the second half can be more optimistic [115]. - With the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the contraction of the Sino - US interest rate spread at the macro level, the pricing logic of domestic asset prices has changed. Anti - deflation and anti - involution are the major trends, so the long - term trends of glass and soda ash should not be overly bearish [115]. - The glass industry may have clear anti - deflation and anti - involution measures in 2026, and the window period when leading stocks in the industry stabilize and rebound in the stock market may be the time for futures trading on anti - deflation and anti - involution [115]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Glass Glass Views - Bearish Logic: Post - holiday orders are scattered with payment collection pressure; anti - deflation and anti - involution may take a long time to implement, and the high premium of futures is incorrect; the high long - term premium of futures leads to high intermediate inventory pressure [4]. - Bullish Logic: War factors increase energy costs and lead to industry production cuts; current daily production capacity of 148,000 tons is lower than the average monthly demand in 2025; anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, and there will be a switch from petroleum coke to natural gas in Hubei; the risk - return ratio is appropriate as prices are at a ten - year low and most devices are in the red; the real estate market has declined for 4 years, and the room for further contraction is limited [5]. Glass Trading Routes - Bearish Trading Route: Focus on delivery logic and futures - spot convergence logic. On March 9, the 09 contract futures premium reached 20%, and the 05 contract reached around 13%. Some manufacturers' inventories hit record highs. The trading strategies include buying spot and shorting futures, adjusting the futures/spot position ratio, and closing positions when the valuation reaches 1000 - 1020 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Bullish Trading Route: The narrowing Sino - US interest rate spread and the appreciation of the RMB lead to capital inflows. The pursuit of leading industrial assets boosts futures expectations. The investment strategies involve allocating multi - assets when the cost line is at par or slightly at a premium to futures, and focusing on policy - driven anti - deflation and anti - involution [9][11]. Glass Supply - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 15,150 tons, with some planned for 2026 [39]. - Potential old - line restarts have a total daily melting capacity of 9,440 tons, also with some planned for 2026 [40]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 11,620 tons, and some are scheduled for 2026 [41]. - The current in - production capacity is around 148,000 tons per day, and the peak in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day. Supply usually tends to restart from the second to the third quarter [42][43]. Glass Price and Profit - Prices in most areas are stable, with prices in Shahe at 1030 - 1090 yuan/ton, in Hubei at 1080 - 1120 yuan/ton, and in the Yangtze River Delta at 1260 - 1340 yuan/ton [55]. - The basis has strengthened due to the decline in futures prices. The profit of petroleum coke - fueled devices is about 27 yuan/ton, while the profits of natural gas and coal - fueled devices are about - 105 yuan/ton and - 36 yuan/ton respectively [56][59]. Glass Inventory and Downstream Production - Downstream production has just started, and short - term inventory still tends to rise, but recent sales have improved. Current inventory is high, and the key lies in whether the market can improve significantly from March to April [67][69]. - Regional arbitrage shows that price differences between regions have changed little [71]. - In 2025, a monthly demand of over 5 million tons led to a significant market increase, and in 2026, a monthly demand of over 4.7 million tons may lead to market stabilization [74]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit: The market was slightly weak in the first quarter. As of Thursday this week, the mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels decreased by 4.65% month - on - month, and that of 3.2mm coated panels decreased by 2.82% month - on - month [77][79]. - Capacity and Inventory: The capacity has slightly shrunk. There are 399 in - production production lines with a total daily melting capacity of 88,100 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%. The sample inventory days are about 42.08 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.96%. Historically, the photovoltaic market may improve after the second quarter, and inventory may start to decline [80][81][86]. Soda Ash Soda Ash Views - Bearish Logic: High supply and high inventory, with the average weekly output of heavy soda above 400,000 - 430,000 tons and the weekly rigid demand at 330,000 - 340,000 tons; the continuous high premium of futures will lead to future supply surplus in the futures market; downstream demanders in the industrial chain are in the red and cutting production [14]. - Bullish Logic: Anti - deflation and anti - involution are trends, with low profits, low absolute prices, low risks, and high potential returns; inventory is concentrated, the export market has improved, and the prices of light and heavy soda are the same; the large - volume warehouse receipts of the SA2509 contract failed to fully suppress the market [14]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - From historical data, there is often a maintenance peak from March to April. If the same peak occurs in 2026, the low - level supply of heavy soda may drop to 360,000 - 380,000 tons per week, but the market still tends to be in surplus. The key is whether the export market can provide an incremental demand of at least 100,000 tons per month [90]. - The capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 85.04%, down from 86.77% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda is around 432,000 tons, and the inventory is about 1.9472 million tons, a 2.79% increase from last Thursday [94][96][98]. Soda Ash Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe is 1220 yuan/ton. The quotes of futures - spot traders have significantly increased, while the ex - factory prices of manufacturers have changed little. The ex - factory prices in North China are concentrated around 1250 yuan/ton, and those in Central China are concentrated at 1100 - 1180 yuan/ton [106]. - The futures price has declined, and the basis has strengthened [108]. - The soda ash market is increasingly showing a weak pattern, with a current weekly rigid demand of 330,000 tons and a weekly supply of 430,000 tons [114].