股指期货将震荡整理原油、燃料油、聚丙烯、苯乙烯、 PTA、PX、PVC、甲醇、乙二醇期货将震荡偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on March 12, 2026, and the overall trend in March 2026 [2][3][4]. - The report also provides information on macro - news, commodity futures, and the performance of stock markets at home and abroad on March 11, 2026 [5][9][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference concluded on the morning of March 11, and the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will hold a closing meeting on the afternoon of March 12 [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued "Six Dos and Six Don'ts" suggestions to prevent the security risks of the OpenClaw open - source intelligent agent. At least 20 securities firms have issued internal compliance reminders or relevant notices, and many domestic universities have warned against using it [5][6]. - The China Development Forum 2026 will be held in Beijing from March 22 to 23, with the theme of "China in the 15th Five - Year Plan: High - quality Development and Co - creating New Opportunities" [6]. - As of the end of January, the balance of inclusive small and micro - enterprise loans in China was 37.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, 5.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of all loans. In January, the average interest rate of newly issued inclusive small and micro - enterprise loans was 3.67%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points compared with the annual average in 2025 [6]. - US President Trump said that the US military action against Iran was "about to end", but US and Israeli officials said they had not received any internal instructions to stop the military action. The US Central Command warned of possible attacks on Iranian civilian ports, and the Iranian armed forces threatened to retaliate [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. The G7 energy ministers supported the use of strategic reserves to stabilize the energy market. The US will "slightly" cut its strategic oil reserves, and Japan will release about 80 million barrels, while Germany will release 2.4 million tons [7]. - G7 leaders discussed the Middle East situation and its economic impact. UK Prime Minister Starmer welcomed the IEA's decision, and French President Macron called for coordinated actions to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [7]. - Iranian President Pezeshkian reaffirmed Iran's commitment to regional peace in calls with Russian and Pakistani leaders and said the "only way" to end the war was to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay war compensation, and provide firm guarantees against future aggression [7]. - Iranian Ambassador to Cyprus said that Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei was injured in the US and Israeli air strikes on February 28, while Pezeshkian's son said he was "safe" [8]. - After the US Supreme Court rejected Trump's tariff plan, the Trump administration plans to announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday to pave the way for new tariffs on imported goods [8]. - The US government budget deficit in February 2026 was $308 billion. The budget deficit for the current fiscal year as of February exceeded $1 trillion, a decrease of about 12% compared with the same period in 2025 [8]. - The US February CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The market believes that the February data did not reflect the impact of the soaring oil prices caused by the Iranian situation, and more data is needed to determine when the Fed will cut interest rates again [9]. - The average US gasoline price rose to $3.58 per gallon, the highest in more than 21 months. It rose 38 cents in the past week and 64 cents in the past month, the largest weekly and monthly increases since March 2022 [9]. - The energy price surge caused by the Iranian war is reshaping the European Central Bank's policy expectations. ECB Governing Council member Kazimir said that the rate - hike time "may be closer than many people think", and ECB Vice - President Guindos warned of the amplified impact on the economy [9]. 3.2 Commodity Futures Information - On March 11, international precious metal futures generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 1.11% to $5183.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 4.11% to $85.91 per ounce [9]. - On March 11, the US crude oil futures main contract rose 5.94% to $88.41 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 6.64% to $93.63 per barrel [10]. - On March 11, most London base metals fell. LME aluminum rose 1.50% to $3457.0 per ton, LME nickel rose 1.33% to $17720.0 per ton, while LME lead, copper, zinc, and tin fell [10]. - OPEC maintained its global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next at 1.38 million barrels per day and 1.34 million barrels per day respectively, and said it was too early to judge the impact of the geopolitical situation on the global economy and oil demand [10]. - Fitch Ratings raised its short - term oil and gas price expectations. The 2026 Brent crude oil price expectation was raised from $63 per barrel to $70 per barrel, and WTI crude oil from $58 per barrel to $65 per barrel [11]. - An Iranian military spokesman warned that the world should "prepare for oil prices to reach $200 per barrel" [11]. - In February, global physical gold ETFs received an inflow of about $5.3 billion, achieving the ninth consecutive month of net inflows. The total gold ETF holdings reached a record high, increasing by 26 tons to 4171 tons, and the total asset management scale reached a record $701 billion [11]. - Qatar's largest liquefied natural gas export plant has not exported goods for five consecutive days, the longest suspension period since 2008. Shell, Total, and some Asian companies have declared force majeure to their customers [11]. - On March 11, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8700 at 16:30, up 18 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 6.8749 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 65 basis points to 6.8917, the highest since April 25, 2023 [11]. - On March 11, at the New York session close, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.26. Non - US currencies showed different trends. The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.57% to 158.9610, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.47% to 0.7152, etc. [12]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On March 11, the main contract IF2603 of CSI 300 stock index futures opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 4687.0 points, up 0.47%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 4706 and 4731 points and support at 4666 and 4659 points. In March 2026, the IF main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 4490 and 4408 points and resistance at 4800 and 4833 points [12][16][17]. - The main contract IH2603 of SSE 50 stock index futures opened slightly lower, rose after a decline, and closed at 2983.8 points, up 0.05%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 2993 and 3005 points and support at 2973 and 2964 points. In March 2026, the IH main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 2908 and 2881 points and resistance at 3100 and 3139 points [13][16][17]. - The main contract IC2603 of CSI 500 stock index futures opened slightly higher, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 8360.0 points, down 0.30%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 8450 and 8534 points and support at 8290 and 8219 points. In March 2026, the IC main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 7639 and 7382 points and resistance at 8728 and 8900 points [13][16][17]. - The main contract IM2603 of CSI 1000 stock index futures opened slightly lower, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 8313.0 points, up 0.06%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 8380 and 8429 points and support at 8274 and 8204 points. In March 2026, the IM main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 7711 and 7543 points and resistance at 8586 and 8700 points [14][16][17]. 3.3.2 Other Futures - Gold futures: On March 11, the main contract AU2604 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 1151.98 yuan per gram, up 0.73%. It is expected to have a weak shock on March 12, with support at 1140.0 and 1132.0 yuan per gram and resistance at 1153.7 and 1162.0 yuan per gram. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a wide - range shock, with resistance at 1210.3 and 1258.7 yuan per gram and support at 1119.2 and 1076.2 yuan per gram [34]. - Silver futures: On March 11, the main contract AG2606 opened slightly lower, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 22256 yuan per kilogram, up 0.41%. It is expected to have a weak shock on March 12, with support at 21547 and 21100 yuan per kilogram and resistance at 22160 and 22625 yuan per kilogram. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a wide - range shock, with resistance at 25141 and 26850 yuan per kilogram and support at 19609 and 17620 yuan per kilogram [40][41]. - Copper futures: On March 11, the main contract CU2604 opened slightly lower, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 101150 yuan per ton, up 0.00%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 102100 and 103000 yuan per ton and support at 100000 and 99600 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak shock, with support at 96600 and 95000 yuan per ton and resistance at 105800 and 114000 yuan per ton [44]. - Aluminum futures: On March 11, the main contract AL2604 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 25215 yuan per ton, up 2.06%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 25520 and 25670 yuan per ton and support at 25100 and 24950 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a strong shock, with resistance at 26190 and 27000 yuan per ton and support at 23020 and 22680 yuan per ton [49][50]. - Nickel futures: On March 11, the main contract NI2605 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, and closed at 137160 yuan per ton, down 0.69%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 140000 and 142100 yuan per ton and support at 135100 and 134100 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak and wide - range shock, with support at 130300 and 125000 yuan per ton and resistance at 141900 and 146600 yuan per ton [53]. - Tin futures: On March 11, the main contract SN2604 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 392740 yuan per ton, down 0.71%. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate on March 12, with resistance at 400000 and 407700 yuan per ton and support at 380000 and 375600 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak shock, with support at 378800 and 349300 yuan per ton and resistance at 470000 and 500000 yuan per ton [59]. - Lithium carbonate futures: On March 11, the main contract LC2605 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then fell, and closed at 155040 yuan per ton, down 5.14%. It is expected to have a weak shock on March 12, with support at 149000 and 142000 yuan per ton and resistance at 159500 and 164900 yuan per ton. In March 2026, the main continuous contract is expected to have a weak shock, with support at 139300 and 123900 yuan per ton and resistance at 189400 and 200000 yuan per ton [62]. - Rebar futures: On March 11, the main contract RB2605 opened slightly higher, rose after a decline, and closed at 3115 yuan per ton, up 0.29%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 3142 and 3161 yuan per ton and support at 3109 and 3102 yuan per ton. In March 2026, it is expected to have a wide - range shock, with resistance at 3177 and 3242 yuan per ton and support at 3006 and 2900 yuan per ton [68]. - Coking coal futures: On March 11, the main contract JM2605 opened flat, rose after a decline, and closed at 1144.5 yuan per ton, up 0.57%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 1170 and 1196 yuan per ton and support at 1136 and 1129 yuan per ton. In March 2026, it is expected to have a strong shock, with resistance at 1288 and 1385 yuan per ton and support at 1062 and 1022 yuan per ton [71]. - Glass futures: On March 11, the main contract FG605 opened slightly higher, rose after a decline, and closed at 1112 yuan per ton, up 2.87%. It is expected to have a strong shock on March 12, with resistance at 1141 and 1150 yuan per ton and support at 1111 and 1095 yuan per ton. In March 2026, it is expected to have a strong and wide - range shock, with resistance at 1225 and 1284 yuan per ton and support at 1015 and 973 yuan per ton [78]. - Soda ash futures: On March 1