朝日集团：25Q3业绩点评：海外业务触底回升，本土复苏仍存压力

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Asahi Group Holdings [2][6] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2025 fell short of market expectations, primarily due to the lingering effects of a cyberattack in the Japanese market and cost pressures, while overseas operations are showing clear signs of recovery [3][10] - The fundamentals of the Japanese business have bottomed out, with a clear medium-to-long-term recovery path anticipated, although geopolitical disturbances should be monitored in 2026 [4][11] - The overseas business recovery is highly certain, supported by multiple catalysts, including the acquisition of East African EABL business expected to contribute positively to earnings [5][12] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 2024, revenue is projected at ¥2,939 billion, with a slight decrease to ¥2,908 billion in 2025, followed by a recovery to ¥3,073 billion in 2026 and ¥3,268 billion in 2027 [9] - Net profit is expected to decline from ¥192 billion in 2024 to ¥154 billion in 2025, before rebounding to ¥184 billion in 2026 and reaching ¥206 billion in 2027 [9] - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be ¥127 in 2024, dropping to ¥103 in 2025, then increasing to ¥123 in 2026 and ¥138 in 2027 [9] Market Dynamics - The Japanese market faced significant challenges due to a cyberattack that disrupted shipments, leading to a ¥5 billion drop in sales and a ¥2 billion reduction in core operating profit [3][10] - In contrast, overseas markets, particularly in Europe and Oceania, have shown strong performance, with sales growth driven by competitive pricing strategies and product structure optimization [3][12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a series of recovery measures in Japan, including SKU streamlining and promotional activities to enhance profitability [4][11] - The acquisition of the East African EABL business is expected to close in the second half of 2026, which will enhance market presence and contribute to earnings growth [5][12] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Asahi Group Holdings is set at ¥1,845, based on a projected P/E ratio of 15x for 2026 [6][13]