TCL Smart Home(SZ:002668) Guoxin Securities·2026-03-13 00:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Smart Home (002668.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company has shown steady improvement in operational quality and has initiated dividend payouts to shareholders, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.0379 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 19.7% and a dividend yield of 2.0% based on the closing price on March 10 [1][4] - In 2025, TCL achieved a revenue of 18.53 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.12 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year, indicating a solid operational performance despite challenges in the domestic market [1][4] - The company is focusing on its core business, which has led to improved operational quality and is expected to benefit from synergies with TCL's broader operations [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, TCL reported a revenue of 4.19 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 24.8% year-on-year, primarily due to non-recurring losses related to a settlement with Gao Rong Capital [1] - The overall revenue for 2025 was 18.53 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.2% increase compared to the previous year [1][5] - The company’s gross margin improved by 2.2 percentage points to 25.2% for the year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 27.1% [3] Market Trends - The refrigerator export market showed resilience, with a 2.5% increase in export value for 2025, and a notable 1.3% growth in Q4 [2] - The export structure of refrigerators is improving, with the share of inverter refrigerators rising by 5 percentage points to 49%, contributing to higher average prices [2] Future Projections - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.34 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% [4][5] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 9, 8, and 7 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5]