地缘冲突叠加铁矿?供给扰动，成本端表现偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and iron ore supply disturbances have led to a strong cost side, with high energy valuations and tight liquidity expectations for some iron ore spot varieties. Although iron - water production has dropped due to environmental restrictions, there is an upward expectation during the peak season. The prices of iron ore and coking coal are likely to rise and difficult to fall, which boosts the sector's valuation. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious, with limited upward drive from the real end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron Ore: Short - term oscillation is expected, but the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [2][10] - Scrap Steel: The short - term supply - and - demand pattern of the scrap - steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals support the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][12] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: In the short term, although iron - water production is disturbed, there is still long - term rigid demand support. After the first round of price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may be strong with energy prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][13] - Coking Coal: The resumption of coal - mine production is limited, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is real - world pressure on the fundamentals. The spot market is expected to oscillate. The futures price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow crude - oil prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][14] 3.3 Alloys - Silicomanganese (MnSi): The market supply and demand are loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3][18] - Ferrosilicon (FeSi): Currently, the supply - and - demand contradiction is not significant, but the continuous profit repair may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - and - demand relationship gradually loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost, and attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level correction [3][20] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long run, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [7][17] 3.5 Steel - After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures and spot markets and rigid - demand restocking. The production of rebar has increased significantly, but the production of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall supply of the five major steel products is still low. Demand shows resilience but lacks highlights. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The upward price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [9] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and plate index (steel industry chain index) all showed varying degrees of increase [105][106]