国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，能源品涨幅居前

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report downgrades the previous recommendation of over - allocating stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals to equal - weight, and relatively recommends allocating TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic commodity futures market, most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, and other sectors also showed different trends [1]. - For the US dollar monetary policy expectations, it's important to judge the stage of the current geopolitical conflict, which affects the market's long - term inflation and economic judgments. The Fed will respond when long - term inflation expectations change. It's too early to discuss the duration of the war, and a neutral scenario is recommended as the benchmark for asset allocation [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectations for the first half of the year will gradually converge, and then shift to the verification stage of real data [1]. - In the short term, the performance of stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - Domestic Commodity Futures: Most contracts closed higher, with energy products leading the gains. Low - sulfur fuel oil rose 14.83%, asphalt in chemicals rose 5.68%, PVC in non - metallic building materials rose 4.40%, the container shipping index (European line) in shipping futures rose 3.07%, palm oil in oils and fats rose 2.43%, coking coal in the black series rose 2.13%, eggs in agricultural and sideline products rose 0.58%, industrial silicon in new energy materials rose 0.41%, Shanghai silver in precious metals fell 2.51%, and Shanghai tin in base metals fell 0.89% [1]. - Financial Market: The CSI 300 futures fell 0.5%, the SSE 50 futures fell 0.52%, the CSI 500 futures fell 0.74%, and the CSI 1000 futures fell 0.46%. The 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.05%. The US dollar index rose 0.32%, and other indices also showed different changes [7]. - Industry Index: The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose 1.24%, the national defense and military industry index fell 2.39%, and other industry indices also had different daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual changes [8][9]. - Overseas Commodities: NYMEX WTI crude oil rose 5.94%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 6.64%, COMEX gold fell 1.11%, and other overseas commodities also showed different price changes [10][11]. - Domestic Main Commodities: The container shipping index (European line) rose 3.2%, gold fell 0.34%, silver fell 0.88%, and other domestic commodities also had different price fluctuations [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - Stock Indices: Due to the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas event shocks, stock indices may enter a shock - adjustment period, and it's necessary to observe domestic economic data to form the next round of trend [1]. - Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, their performance may be affected [1]. - TS, TF: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - Financial: Stock index futures are expected to be shock - strong, stock index options are expected to be shock, and Treasury bond futures are expected to be shock [4]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to be shock [4]. - Shipping: The container shipping European line is expected to be shock [4]. - Black Building Materials: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., are mostly expected to be shock, with some varieties having a shock - weak tendency [4]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [4]. - Energy and Chemicals: Most varieties are expected to be shock, with some having a shock - strong tendency [5]. - Agriculture: Oils, grains, and other varieties have different short - term trends, such as shock - strong, shock - weak, etc. [5].