五矿期货农产品早报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated due to crude oil price volatility. With the raw sugar price at a historical low and potential reduction in the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil after April, and domestic production pressure easing, there is a possibility of a rebound. It is advisable to take a small long position on dips [4][5]. - For cotton, short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. Focus on the downstream startup in March, and if it is favorable, there is room for an increase. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [6][9]. - For protein meal, due to geopolitical crises, the prices fluctuated significantly with crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [11][12]. - For oils and fats, short - term prices were driven up by the sharp rise in crude oil prices. With the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries at a low level, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [14][15]. - For eggs, the production capacity is declining but the pace is slow. The short - term supply is still high, and the spot price lacks the driving force for continuous increase. The futures price has a high premium. Adopt a strategy of selling on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - term contracts [17][18]. - For pigs, considering the high weight and theoretical output, the support from second - fattening is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weak and stable. For the near - term futures contracts, sell on rallies; for the far - term contracts, wait and see [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar 行情资讯 - StoneX reduced the forecast of the global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season to 870,000 tons, mainly due to the reduction in the estimated sugar production in India from 32.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 15,900 lots, equivalent to 808,000 tons [4]. - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that the net sugar production in India (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 season would be 29.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.65 million tons from the previous forecast and a year - on - year increase of 3.17 million tons [4]. - As of the week of March 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.4939 million tons [4]. - As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 609,000 tons of sugarcane, with a sugar output of 5,000 tons and a sugar - cane ratio of 6.63% [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 181.29 million tons, 480,000 tons less than the previous forecast [4]. 策略观点 - Short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. With the raw sugar price at a low level and potential reduction in the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil after April, and domestic production pressure easing, there may be a rebound. Take a small long position on dips [5]. Cotton 行情资讯 - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption would remain stable at 25 million tons [6]. - From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. The export to China was 1,800 tons in the week, and the cumulative export to China was 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons [6]. - As of the week of March 6, the spinning mill startup rate was 73.2%, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 percentage points, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons [6]. - The USDA predicted that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 540,000 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.4 percentage points [8]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. The cumulative import in 2025 was 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. 策略观点 - Short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. Focus on the downstream startup in March, and if it is favorable, there is room for an increase. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [9]. Protein Meal 行情资讯 - China imported 5.976 million tons of soybeans in February, and the cumulative import from January to February was 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [11]. - AgRural and StoneX reduced their forecasts of Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to 178 million tons and 177.8 million tons respectively [11]. - From February 19 to February 26, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export was 36.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. The export to China was 150,000 tons in the week, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [11]. - As of the week of March 6, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons [11]. - The USDA predicted that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.028 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [11]. 策略观点 - Due to geopolitical crises, the prices fluctuated significantly with crude oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. Oils and Fats 行情资讯 - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% [14]. - Indonesia is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year [14]. - In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons [14]. - In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons [14]. - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 581,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 622,000 tons (ITS data), an increase compared to the same period last month [14]. - As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 430,000 tons [14]. - As of the week of March 6, the domestic sample inventory of three major oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons [14]. 策略观点 - Short - term prices were driven up by the sharp rise in crude oil prices. With the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries at a low level, a bullish view is maintained in the medium term [15]. Eggs 行情资讯 - The national egg price was generally stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream digestion was average, and it is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable with slight fluctuations in some areas [17]. 策略观点 - The production capacity is declining but the pace is slow. The short - term supply is still high, and the spot price lacks the driving force for continuous increase. The futures price has a high premium. Adopt a strategy of selling on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - term contracts [18]. Pigs 行情资讯 - The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.11 yuan to 10.09 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 10.11 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi increased by 0.09 yuan to 10.11 yuan per kilogram. The slaughter enthusiasm of standard - sized pigs was okay, the demand for large pigs was average, and the slaughter pressure was high. It is expected that today's national pig price will be stable in the north and increase in the south [20]. 策略观点 - Considering the high weight and theoretical output, the support from second - fattening is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weak and stable. For the near - term futures contracts, sell on rallies; for the far - term contracts, wait and see [21].