五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报2026-3-13-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term copper price is expected to be volatile due to concerns about inflation and economic weakness caused by the Middle East conflict, with a tight supply pattern and stable downstream recovery [3][4]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong as the supply risk in the Middle East has not been eliminated, and domestic downstream resumption of work will reduce the pressure of ingot accumulation [6][7]. - The lead price may decline further as both domestic and foreign lead ingots have large inventory accumulations, and the downstream consumption has not fully recovered [8][9]. - The zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough and will follow the sector sentiment in a wide - range shock during the conflict [10][11]. - The tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. Although there is a strong sentiment to buy tin, the supply - demand is marginally loose and inventory is rising [12][13]. - The nickel price is expected to oscillate. In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia supports the price, while in the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Domestic production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and potential green - power transformation may benefit the pricing [17]. - The alumina price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to potential drivers such as mine production reduction and supply contraction policies [19][20]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern as the market procurement atmosphere has improved, but downstream actual purchases are still limited [22][23]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to remain strong due to the strong cost, improved demand after the festival, and supply - side disturbances [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The LME 3M copper contract closed down 0.77% to $12,948/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,860 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 275 to 312,350 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased slightly [3]. Strategy View - The short - term copper price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,200 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,100/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The LME 3M aluminum contract rose 2.2% to $3,533/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,325 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased [6]. Strategy View - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 26,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,460 - 3,600/ton [7]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.34% to 16,636 yuan/ton. The LME 3S lead fell to $1,937.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased [8]. Strategy View - The lead price may decline further as the downstream consumption has not fully recovered and the inventory is accumulating [9]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.35% to 24,329 yuan/ton. The LME 3S zinc fell to $3,313.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased [10]. Strategy View - The zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough and will follow the sector sentiment in a wide - range shock during the conflict [11]. Tin Market Information - The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.19% to 393,500 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand has not been effectively reflected [12]. Strategy View - The tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main - contract reference range of 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.69% to 138,100 yuan/ton. The spot price of nickel iron continued to rise [14]. Strategy View - The nickel price is expected to oscillate. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 0.74%. The production increased by 3.7% week - on - week, and the inventory decreased by 0.4% [17]. Strategy View - The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract is 146,000 - 167,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.09% to 2,880 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased, and the spot price in Shandong rose [19]. Strategy View - The alumina price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main - contract AO2605 reference range of 2,800 - 2,950 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.49% to 14,285 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased [22]. Strategy View - The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern, with the main - contract reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [23]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The casting aluminum alloy price rose and then fell. The AD2604 contract rose 0.44% to 23,990 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased [25]. Strategy View - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to remain strong [26].