贵金属：贵金属日报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bearish outlook on precious metals [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation pattern. After geopolitical events provided short - term support to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices in the context of the US - Iran war triggered market inflation expectations and made the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle - East conflict, but the stickiness on the service side slowed down the decline. Higher inflation expectations under the current rising energy prices have strengthened the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for a long time this year, which suppresses precious metal prices. The report suggests a cautious bearish strategy, with the reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and for the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.94% to 1137.50 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21706.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.76% to 5086.80 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.56% to 83.78 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.27%, and the US dollar index was 99.73 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the geopolitical conflict, US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a moderate month - on - month increase of 0.3%, and the core CPI month - on - month was stable at 0.2%, with the core inflation year - on - year increase at a near - five - year low [2] - The Iranian diplomatic spokesman said that many ships could still pass through the Strait of Hormuz if coordinated with the Iranian Navy. Meanwhile, the Trump administration of the US intended to suspend the Jones Act to increase domestic oil transportation efficiency and stabilize oil prices [2] 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [6] - Silver: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [6] 3.3 ETF Holdings - Gold: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; GBS UK's holdings decreased by 0.00% to 30.59 tons; PHAU UK's holdings decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; GOLD UK's holdings increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; SGBS Switzerland's holdings decreased by 0.00% to 35.20 tons [65] - Silver: SLV US's closing price fell 2.72% to 77.91 dollars, the holdings decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion dollars, and the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; ETPMAG Australia's holdings remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; PSLV Canada's holdings remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; CEF Canada's holdings remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [65]