格林大华期货早盘提示-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is bullish [1] Core View of the Report - Due to the unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply. The domestic methanol port inventory decreased this week. The import volume will shrink from February to March, and multiple olefin plants are shut down with uncertain restart times. Geopolitical conflicts affect both the production and transportation of methanol in Iran, causing delays in the restart of multiple methanol plants. In the short term, the methanol price will fluctuate widely and strongly [1] Summary According to the Directory Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 40 yuan to 2,813 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China rose by 150 yuan to 2,810 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 13,476 lots to 361,000 lots, and short positions increased by 16,532 lots to 385,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 90.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 52.16%, a month-on-month decrease of 4.1% [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.3128 million tons, a decrease of 130,700 tons compared with the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 95,600 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 35,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 5.3% [1] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 60,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 40,700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, a month-on-month decrease of 10.1%. The olefin operating rate is 82.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 82.8%, a month-on-month increase of 1.9%; the acetic acid operating rate is 85.4%, a month-on-month increase of 1.2%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 37.6%, a month-on-month increase of 8.8%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.9%, a month-on-month increase of 1.2% [1] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.734 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest at 604,400 tons, and the average import price was 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14.4054 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.75% [1] - Oil Price: The new leader of Iran said that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and concerns about supply risks continue to increase, causing international oil prices to rise sharply. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 8.48 US dollars/barrel to 95.73 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 9.72%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 8.48 US dollars/barrel to 100.46 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 9.22%. The China INE crude oil futures 2605 contract rose 69.2 to 714.6 yuan/barrel, and rose 55.5 to 770.1 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unclear, and international crude oil fluctuates violently. The domestic methanol port inventory decreased this week. The import volume will shrink from February to March, and multiple olefin plants are shut down with uncertain restart times. Geopolitical conflicts affect both the production and transportation of methanol in Iran, causing delays in the restart of multiple methanol plants. In the short term, the methanol price will fluctuate widely and strongly [1] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish mindset or focus on positive calendar spreads [1]