Changjiang Securities·2026-03-13 01:10Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - Recent geopolitical conflicts, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have significantly impacted air freight routes between Asia and Europe, leading to a systemic disruption of Middle Eastern air transport hubs. Flight volumes in key nodes like Doha and Dubai have drastically reduced, with a decline of approximately 60% in takeoff and landing frequencies at 20 major airports in the region. This has forced a large-scale rerouting of Asia-Europe air routes, resulting in extreme supply tightness and an initial increase in air freight prices in Europe [2][5] - The closure of Middle Eastern airspace has intensified capacity scarcity, which is expected to exacerbate the mismatch between air freight supply and demand. Future air freight price trends should be closely monitored, as air freight may become one of the most benefited segments in transportation. The report is optimistic about leading air freight companies such as Eastern Airlines Logistics and comprehensive logistics leader SF Holding, anticipating simultaneous increases in volume and price. Additionally, it suggests paying attention to freight forwarding leaders like China National Foreign Trade and Huamao Logistics [2][7] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact on Air Freight - The Middle Eastern air transport system has faced severe disruptions due to geopolitical conflicts, leading to a significant reduction in operational capacity for Middle Eastern airlines. Qatar Airways, the world's second-largest cargo airline, has been severely restricted, with routes from Doha remaining suspended. Other airlines like Etihad and Emirates are recovering slowly, resulting in a dramatic contraction in regional supply [5][6] - European airlines have been forced to reroute to the "Northern Corridor," increasing flight durations and reducing turnaround efficiency, which is a key driver of rising global air freight rates. As of March 8, air freight rates from Central Europe to the Middle East and Europe have increased by 53.7% and 13.7% respectively, while rates for Southeast Asia to Europe have surged by 51.1% [5][6] Market Dynamics and Opportunities - Chinese airlines are expected to benefit from the current situation, as they can fly directly over Russian airspace, providing a cost and efficiency advantage compared to European and American airlines that must reroute. This advantage may accelerate market share expansion for Chinese logistics companies amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [6] - The demand for air freight remains robust, particularly for high-end manufacturing and consumer electronics, which are less sensitive to price fluctuations. The industry has a fuel cost share of about 15%, and fluctuations in oil prices can be effectively passed down to downstream customers due to fuel surcharge mechanisms in freight contracts. Predictions indicate that global air freight volume and wide-body aircraft numbers will grow at a rate of 2.4% by 2026, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand [6][7] Price Trends and Logistics Data - Air freight prices have seen significant increases, particularly in the European and Southeast Asian markets, driven by tightened capacity in the Middle East. For the week of March 3 to March 9, air freight price indices for various routes showed substantial increases, with Hong Kong to London rising by 8.7% and Singapore by 47.6% [8] - The volume of express delivery services has shown stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0% in the week of March 2 to March 8, and a cumulative growth rate of 5.8% expected by 2026 [8]