资讯早班车-2026-03-13-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment to create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the economy [2][15]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" draft proposes 109 major projects, with an estimated investment of over 7 trillion yuan this year, which will play important roles in strengthening the foundation, making up for shortcomings, and increasing development potential [2]. - The有色金属 industry is transforming from a cyclical commodity to a strategic scarce asset, and emerging industries will bring structural growth opportunities to the industry [5]. - The Middle East conflict has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, and the supply and demand of the global oil market have changed, with supply growth expectations and demand growth expectations both being lowered [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both lower than the same period last year [1]. - In January 2026, the social financing scale was 7220.8 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans of financial institutions were 4710 billion yuan [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [1]. - In February 2026, exports increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase adjustment efforts [2]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" draft proposes 109 major projects, with an estimated investment of over 7 trillion yuan this year [2]. - The US will conduct trade investigations on 16 major trading partners including China, and China opposes such political manipulation [3]. - On March 12, 39 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 29 had negative basis [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On March 13, the spot gold price reached $5100, up 0.41% [4]. - The non - ferrous metal industry is transforming, and emerging industries will drive the demand for high - end non - ferrous metal materials [5]. - Hong Kong is promoting the construction of an over - the - counter gold central clearing system [5]. - Ping An Bank will gradually close its agency personal precious metal trading business on the Shanghai Gold Exchange from April 1 [5]. - As of March 12, 2026, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 1.43 tons [6]. - Rio Tinto raised the aluminum premium for shipments to Japan by 40% [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Tensions in the Middle East have increased the transportation cost of Philippine nickel ore, and the domestic trade premium of Indonesian nickel ore remains high [7]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On March 12, international oil prices soared, and the US government plans to issue a temporary exemption for the "Jones Act" [8][9]. - Brent crude oil futures settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022 [9]. - Iraq's oil ports stopped operating, and Iran stated its stance on revenge and strategic means [9]. - The US issued a new general license for Russian crude oil and petroleum products [10]. - Japan announced measures to deal with rising oil prices, including price locking and releasing oil reserves [10]. - The International Energy Agency lowered the global crude oil supply and demand growth expectations [10]. - As of March 6, the US natural gas inventory decreased from the previous week and increased compared to the same period last year [11]. - Ukrainian drones attacked a Russian oil pumping station [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The State Council Food Safety Office will improve the regulatory system and carry out special rectifications [12]. - German winter rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.7% in 2026 [12]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 12, the central bank conducted 24.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Important News - More than 10 trillion yuan of inter - bank deposits may see interest rate cuts [14]. - The Ministry of Finance revised the government revenue and expenditure classification for 2026, adding new expenditure items for ultra - long - term special treasury bonds [15]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [15]. - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed, approving various reports and passing relevant laws [16]. - The Ministry of Justice will focus on optimizing the business environment and accelerating legislation in relevant fields [16]. - From January to February, the sales revenue of high - tech industries in China increased by 16.1% year - on - year [16]. - In 2025, China's logistics technology developed rapidly, and the ratio of total logistics costs to GDP decreased [16]. - The US will conduct trade investigations on 16 major trading partners including China, and China and the EU oppose such actions [17]. - Iran stated its stance on revenge and strategic means [17]. - International oil prices soared on March 12, and the US government plans to issue a temporary exemption for the "Jones Act" [18]. - Japanese bonds suffered the largest single - week net foreign capital outflow in nearly two and a half months [18]. - BNP Paribas plans to issue up to 5 billion yuan of panda bonds in the Chinese inter - bank bond market [19]. - Amazon issued $54 billion in bonds in the US and euro markets [19]. - Some companies had bond - related events such as debt defaults and redemptions [20]. - Moody's maintained the ratings of some companies, and S&P downgraded the rating of Keeta's parent company [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China warmed up in the afternoon, with yields of major interest - rate bonds falling, and treasury bond futures rising [21]. - The exchange bond market had some bonds rising and some falling [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell [22]. - Most money market interest rates changed, with some rising and some falling [23]. - Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose [23]. - The winning bid yields of China Development Bank's financial bonds of different maturities were announced [24]. - The inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed differentiation [24]. - The inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate of the inter - bank market mostly remained flat [24]. - European and US bond yields rose [25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - On March 12, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 52 basis points, and the central parity rate was down 42 basis points [26]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB exchange rate shows strong resilience, and it may maintain a range - bound movement in the short term and is expected to appreciate moderately in 2026 [28]. - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the US - Iran conflict does not have the basis to push up the bond market center, and short - term fluctuations caused by market sentiment are the main influencing factors [28]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 13, 197 bonds were listed, 89 bonds were issued, 135 bonds were paid, and 233 bonds paid principal and interest [29]. 3.4 Stock Market News - A - shares oscillated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1%, and sectors such as wind power, energy storage, chemicals, and coal rising, while military, precious metals, and semiconductors falling [31]. - Hong Kong stocks oscillated with reduced volume, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.7%, and coal and automobile sectors being strong, while large - scale technology and biopharmaceutical stocks generally falling [31].