2026年03月13日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term volatility has increased due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. As of March 3, 2026, platinum and palladium have fallen by 21.4% and 19.7% respectively from their January highs, and have also significantly retraced from their February 24 repair highs. The main short - term disturbance is Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. Although Warsh's policy stance is dovish, it is less than expected. The short - term strengthening of the US dollar after the nomination announcement has dragged down platinum and palladium. In the long run, the judicial investigation of Powell has shaken the US dollar's credit, the global central bank gold - buying wave continues, and the geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support. In the industrial sector, there is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, and the supply of palladium is rigid, with strong demand support [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 564.65, 562.55, and 556.15 respectively, with price drops of - 5.35, - 4.40, and - 8.20, and percentage drops of - 0.94%, - 0.78%, and - 1.45% respectively. The trading volumes are 3352, 58, and 70 respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 416.60, 417.00, and 414.05 respectively, with price drops of - 8.85, - 6.90, and - 7.40, and percentage drops of - 2.08%, - 1.63%, and - 1.76% respectively. The trading volumes are 1720, 7, and 15 respectively [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 553.23 yuan/gram, 2150.00 US dollars/ounce, 852.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The price changes are - 3.85, - 55.00, - 19.00, and 0.00 respectively, and the percentage changes are - 0.007%, - 0.025%, - 0.022%, and 0.000% respectively. For palladium, the previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 405.00 yuan/gram and 4207.12 rubles/gram respectively, with price changes of - 9.00 and - 53.43, and percentage changes of - 0.022% and - 0.013% respectively [1] 3.3 Inventory - The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 582,440.79 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 313,567.94 ounces, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum trading volume is 168.00 kilograms, and the trading amount is 9,256.15 ten - thousand yuan. The current NYMEX palladium inventory is 204,678.02 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts are 162,278.54 ounces. Compared with the previous values, the changes in platinum inventory and registered warehouse receipts are 0.0, while the trading volume and amount have increased by 152.0 kilograms and 8364.8 ten - thousand yuan respectively. The changes in palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts are 0.0 [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives and Macro - related Data - The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury bond yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.74, 6,672.62, 4.27, 22,311.98, 46,677.85, and 6.90 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the US dollar index has increased by 0.48, the S&P 500 index has decreased by - 103.18, the US Treasury bond yield has increased by 0.06, the Nasdaq index has decreased by - 404.15, the Dow Jones index has decreased by - 739.42, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate has increased by 0.00. The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1148.10, 1151.52, and 1154.20 respectively, with decreases of - 3.88, - 4.00, and - 3.86 respectively. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 22225.00, 22062.00, and 21983.00 respectively, with decreases of - 184, - 194, and - 202 respectively [1] 3.5 Macro News - Military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - US President Trump has nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination faces opposition from some senators. Warsh's policy stance has shifted from hawkish to supporting Trump's tariff policies and accelerated rate - cuts [2] - The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump's appointed director Milan [2] - The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving payment services [3]